But it is clear that path doesn't go through Utah, which hasn't voted Democratic for a presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

Gilbert said the Obama campaign "will take the high ground" in fighting McCain. But Obama won't sit back and take the hits that Republicans are throwing at him. "Watch TV next week," during the Republicans national convention in St. Paul. "You will see some sharp comparison" ads — a code name for negative advertisements.

Gilbert said Obama's lead in national polls by a few percentage points is misleading. Many young people 18 to 30 do not have ground line telephones, and cell phone numbers aren't listed or easily available. Accordingly, it is tough for pollsters to get an accurate read on young people.

At one Wisconsin college, a good grassroots campaign before that state's primary registered a high percent of students, and Obama took that voting precinct with 62 percent of the vote.

That same ground war will be waged by Obama "in all 50 states," and young voters will be key to an Obama victory in November, Gilbert said.

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