Retailers also are having to make tough choices about raising prices because inflation in China is increasing U.S. costs on goods. A quarter of all the clothes sold in the United States — and 84 percent of shoes — are made in China.

China's producer price index, a measure of inflation, climbed 8.8 percent in June. That helped push U.S. costs on goods from China up 4.8 percent in June, the biggest year-over-year gain since the Labor Department started tracking the data in 2003.

Stores charging 8 percent to 9 percent more for some items are hoping to mask the inflated prices with well-promoted discounts and new merchandise, which is already priced higher, Flickinger said.

"It's a risky strategy, because people who are already buying less at full price will have even more sticker shock and be less inclined," Flickinger said. "This is simply a matter of survival."

In Utah, clothing costs rose 9.7 percent along the Wasatch Front between February and June, according to a consumer price index from Wells Fargo. Food prices, meanwhile, rose 2.7 percent in that time period. And gas prices rose 8 percent between May and June alone.

But the spending forecast might not be all clouds. Crude-oil costs are going down, and that should lower prices at the pump and buoy consumer spending confidence, said Kelly Matthews, economist at Wells Fargo in Salt Lake City.

People also have their economic-stimulus checks, courtesy of the federal government. But analysts note that many consumers have already spent that money, before back-to-school shopping.

"All in all, you certainly have a mixed bag in terms of what parents will do," Matthews said. "My guess is that there's every reason to believe that the Utah environment for back-to-school spending would be less robust than it has been in years past, but relatively speaking, more robust than a comparable, national expectation might be."

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Contributing: Associated Press; Bloomberg News.

E-mail: jtcook@desnews.com; nwarburton@desnews.com