Democrat says 'dynamic has changed' in 3rd District race

With incumbent GOP U.S. Rep. Chris Cannon being defeated in his 3rd Congressional District re-election bid, do Utah Democrats really have a shot at recapturing this heavily-Republican district?

Ask Jason Chaffetz, the Republican who defeated Cannon in last month's GOP primary, and he laughs. Chaffetz says he will be the next 3rd District U.S. House member. "We'll keep on doing what we've been doing — working hard, working at the grassroots level. And we'll win."

Ask Bennion Spencer, the Democrat in the race, and he believes he starts the general election campaign maybe a 60-40 percent underdog — but still with a shot at getting the 3rd District back in Democratic hands, where it was from 1990 to 1996. "The whole dynamic has changed" with Cannon's defeat, said Spencer.

A reflection of any campaign is the money you can raise. The latest Federal Election Commission filings are due today.

Spencer has already filed his, and it shows he has only raised $10,785, has loaned his campaign $4,500 and has $2,719 in cash.

Chaffetz gave the Deseret News a copy of his report, showing he has raised $208,000 and spent $190,000, leaving him with under $18,000 in cash.

But both men say now there is a whole new race:

"This is now an open seat," said Spencer, a TV producer and writer. "With 98 percent of House incumbents winning re-election, we don't have an incumbent now. It's all different."

"I'm the Republican (Party) nominee," countered Chaffetz. Fundraising and his reception among Republicans in Washington, D.C., "has changed — it is completely different." Chaffetz just returned from a D.C. fundraising/get-to-know-you trip. "We've raised tens of thousands of dollars that won't be reflected in this latest report, because of the reporting deadlines," said Chaffetz.

"It is still a very Republican district," says Kelly Patterson, a Brigham Young University political science professor. "But the dynamic has changed. It is a different animal. Jason does not have the advantages of an incumbent."

He doesn't have name ID among voters that an incumbent would, said Patterson. And an open seat often sees two political newcomers who don't have the grasp of issues or the polished speaking ability to articulate solutions to complicated national problems, Patterson added.

Without a strong candidate name ID, the national debate and context of a presidential election takes on more importance inside a U.S. House race, said Patterson.