Skim through the NBA's drafts, year by year, and many produce a familiar template: a clear 1-2, followed by a lesser supporting cast.

Greg Oden and Kevin Durant last year, for instance.

Dwight Howard and Emeka Okafor in 2004.

LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony, one year earlier (with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh considered a cut below) — except, oops! Detroit decided to spend the No. 2 pick on Darko Milicic, leaving Anthony for Denver in the three-hole.

Which brings us to Thursday's annual meat market in New York, where the two lead characters seem obvious: Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley.

Then again ...

Rose appears the chalk choice for the Bulls with the No. 1 pick because of where he's from (Chicago) and his position (point guard). Except, they already defied the odds last month by winning the lottery from the nine-hole, then defied convention by hiring coaching novice Vinny Del Negro. So don't rule out Beasley to fill a crying need for a low-post big body.

Whatever they do, it means the Heat at No. 2 get whomever the Bulls don't pick. Yet, there's talk Miami may trade the pick if it's "stuck" with the player it doesn't want or may reach for someone beyond Rose or Beasley, such as O.J. Mayo.

Still, no matter when or where they go, league executives believe that Rose and Beasley are the prime characters.

"The top tier is 1-2," said John Hammond, recently appointed Milwaukee's general manager and Joe Dumars' second in command in Detroit when the Pistons picked Milicic. "After that, there's a second tier and where that next tier ends, that's a good question."

"You have two franchise-type players in Rose and Beasley," said Philadelphia general manager Ed Stefanski, the former Nets GM. "Then you have a lot of other players after that who could be good players, maybe franchise players."

It's "maybe," of course, that provides the intrigue in every draft. It's easy to imagine the two deposed GMs who drafted Andrew Bogut and Marvin Williams 1-2 in 2005 (Milwaukee's Larry Harris and Atlanta's Billy Knight) thinking on a daily basis, "Maybe I should've drafted Chris Paul or Deron Williams," who went third and fourth.

The apparent outcome of that draft, however, drives this one, because Rose plays a position that ultimately could drive Chicago's decision the way Oden did Portland's a year ago.

Today's conventional wisdom says exceptional shooting guards and small forwards (2s and 3s in modern parlance), even power forwards (4s), are far more plentiful than point guards (1s) and centers (5s). Thus, if you get a chance to grab a superior center or point guard, do it, even if you already have a capable one.