No summer break for McCain, Obama

WASHINGTON — While many people will work on their tans this summer or on summer reading lists or on not working too hard, two exceptions — John McCain and Barack Obama — and their underlings will be working.

Working industriously on an election that only one can win.

With 11 weeks to the start of the Democratic convention — and the GOP event just days later — Republican McCain and Democrat Obama will be focused on strategy, fundraising, shoring up weak spots and exploiting opportunities to prepare themselves for the sprint to Nov. 4.

Here's what they'll be worrying about:

Shrinking the electoral map.

From now on, the great majority of Americans can be excused if they barely realize a presidential election is under way. They will see virtually no TV ads, visits by candidates or local news coverage.

That's because this campaign, like the last two, will focus on about 15 competitive states. Both parties see the other states as reliably in their camps and not needing attention, or totally out of reach and not worth the effort and expense of trying to win them. In either case, these states will largely be ignored.

McCain will start by trying to hold the 31 states President Bush won in 2004 (which are almost identical to the 30 he won in 2000). If he succeeds, he will be president.

Obama must claim one or more of those states, while losing few if any of the ones Al Gore and John Kerry won in their narrow losses to Bush.

The magic number is 18. That's how many electoral votes Obama must add to Kerry's 252, from four years ago, to secure the presidency. For example, if Obama carries Iowa (seven electoral votes) and Missouri (11) without losing any Kerry states, he would become president.

Other states Obama will target as possible pickups are Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and at least one — Virginia — not normally within the Democrats' reach.

He must play defense elsewhere in hopes of keeping McCain from snatching Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon, New Hampshire and possibly Maine, all of which Kerry won.