News analysis: GOP still on top in Utah

You've heard the political pundits — Americans are angry, sick of Congress, sick of their state legislatures, wanting change.

Democratic candidates throughout the country believe this can be the year when they win the presidency and win larger majorities in the U.S. House and Senate. And Utah Democrats hope for the same types of gains across the board locally.

But while some Western states, like Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, may indeed be at play for Democrats, new polling shows that in Utah it is still red, red and more red — and we're not talking about the University of Utah here.

A recent survey conducted for the Deseret News and KSL-TV by Dan Jones & Associates shows just what Utah Democrats are up against in 2008:

• Almost two-thirds of registered Utah voters say they plan to vote for the Republican candidate in their state House or Senate race this year. Only 24 percent of voters say they plan to vote for the Democratic Party's candidate in their legislative contests. Republicans hold two-thirds majorities now in the Legislature.

• In the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts, Republican voters outnumber Democrats three to one. The odds are better in the 2nd District, where Republicans outnumber Democrats two to one.

• In Salt Lake County, where Democrats have been making gains recently, Republicans still account for 40 percent of the voters, Jones found, while Democrats are at 29 percent and independents are at 26 percent.

• Even when "political independents" are added to the Democratic totals, Democrats and independents together don't outnumber Republicans in the 1st and 3rd Districts, which are considered two of the more conservative House seats in America.

• While U.S. Rep. Jim Matheson, Utah's lone Democrat in Congress, has won impressive victories in 2004 and 2006, it is clear that even he must get a sizable number of Republican votes to win his 2nd District again.

• And while a number of Utahns say it is time to let someone new serve in their state House or Senate district, GOP challengers to incumbent Republican legislators have not fared well so far this year — by far most challengers were defeated in their county or state conventions. Only three legislative incumbents have so far been defeated: Sen. Fred Fife, D-Salt Lake; and Reps. Sylvia Andersen, R-Sandy; and Aaron Tilton, R-Springville.

Even embattled state Sen. Chris Buttars, R-West Jordan, eliminated all of his GOP challengers in the Salt Lake County Republican Convention, getting 60 percent of the delegate vote and winning renomination outright.