Chaffetz has a shot at defeating Cannon

Last week's Republican state convention was a shocker to most Utah politicos. Jason Chaffetz, former campaign manager and chief of staff to Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., almost won the nomination for the 3rd Congressional District outright to avoid a primary (falling short of 60 percent by a few votes) Most expected a David Leavitt vs. Chris Cannon primary. This whopper of an upset is driving many questions:

Was the Chaffetz victory a last-minute fluke or did he have some hidden momentum?

Webb: Chaffetz clearly gave the best convention presentation. The delegates wanted red meat and he gave it to them with a fiery speech focused on the specifics of how he'll go back to Washington and do battle with the godless Democrats. But he also has been working for two years with the delegates and had more strength entering the convention than anyone expected. Had Chaffetz not infuriated Leavitt with his hard-ball tactics, causing Leavitt to shift his support to Cannon, Chaffetz would be the nominee today. He also would probably be the nominee had more people stuck around to vote in the final round. Chaffetz upset a lot of people, especially the GOP establishment, but you have to give him credit for effectiveness with the delegates. It wasn't a fluke.

Pignanelli: "A political convention is just not a place where you come away with any trace of faith in human nature" — journalist Murray Kempton. Until last week, most politicos believed that Chaffetz's hard work was only raising doubts about the incumbent Cannon to the benefit of Leavitt. But Chaffetz took advantage of the storm he created. He threw juicy cow legs for the right-wing piranhas to savor and chew. Claiming global warming was a farce and targeting illegal immigration, he captured the momentum. Fun for convention politics, these issues are a disaster for the GOP in the long term. Thus it is no wonder Sen. John McCain and Gov. Huntsman are polar opposites from Chaffetz and many state delegates on these matters. The delegate and convention process is an artifact from the political Paleozoic era that must be eliminated.

Will Chaffetz's status as a former Democrat (and involvement with the Dukakis presidential campaign), hurt or help?

Webb: Utah Republicans like converts, so Chaffetz's former life is not a problem. His bigger problems are that he doesn't live in the 3rd District, he's relatively young and brash and sometimes comes across as a hotshot with a big ego. He alienated a lot of legislators and others when he was Huntsman's chief of staff. Besides showing he's tough on Democrats, he needs to demonstrate a little humility, show he's a good guy and not a loose cannon (pun intended).