GOP storm is brewing in Utah County

Sure, sure, Utah County voters are conservative, blah, blah.

Yeah, yeah, Utah County is the reddest county in the U.S. of A. Yada, yada, yada.

We know, already. The broad brush that paints this BYU-blue valley a blushing political red doesn't mean that every person here is a red-eyed, straight-ticket conservative.

A vast number of real, living, breathing moderate Republicans roam these parts and even a few — whisper with me now ... Democrats. But the Democrats are so November — nothing happens with them until the general election. A major June storm is brewing in the Republican Party, where Jason Chaffetz scared the stuffing out of six-term Congressman Chris Cannon on Saturday.

In fact, Cannon barely survived the day, holding onto his seat by a thread. His congressional career survived at the state GOP convention by a slim nine votes.

That's nine as in 911. If five people had voted Chaffetz instead of Cannon on the third ballot, Chaffetz would have earned a 60 percent supermajority and the Republican nomination. No primary would have been necessary, Cannon would have been done and the race for the 3rd Congressional District would be a November story, too.

Chaffetz pummeled Cannon, beating him 59 percent to 41 percent in the vote of more than 1,000 quite-conservative delegates.

Now this race gets very interesting, because it changes completely. Cannon lost at the convention two years ago, too, to John Jacob, though by a smaller margin, 52-48. Cannon rebounded for an easy win over Jacob in the Republican primary, 56-44.

The Utah Jazz provide a nice analogy. The Jazz are 41-5 in home games this year, including the playoffs, but they win less than half the time they play on the road. Cannon is the Jazz, and despite being a card-carrying conservative, he is playing a road game when he goes to a Republican convention. Republican primaries, on the other hand, have been a nice comfortable home game for him.

The reason is Republican convention delegates in his district are notably more conservative than Republican primary voters, who have never found a compelling reason to recall Cannon from Washington.

The axiom is this. Nobody who has forced Cannon to a primary by running to his right has gone on to win the primary.