Leavitt told delegates Saturday at a Provo debate that he is similar to Cannon but a better leader and diplomat, an appealing prospect to many Republicans who in the past have chafed at Cannon's style.

Cannon was ready for that, delivering what Leavitt, Chaffetz and Frandsen all agreed was a strong debate performance.

"We've gotten him to be a little bit more concise," Frandsen said.

Chaffetz said Thursday that he won the debate, however. His strategy has been to outflank Cannon at the convention, where if one candidate earns 60 percent of the vote, he automatically wins the Republican nomination without a primary.

"I think there's a great opportunity for me to get 60 percent on Saturday," Chaffetz said. "I have better issues and a better organized campaign."

It's unlikely any of the 3rd District candidates could win 60 percent of the vote on the first ballot on Saturday with such a strong field. Once one of the Big Three — Cannon, Leavitt and Chaffetz — is eliminated, a second ballot could decide the nominee.

If none of the candidates receive 60 percent, the top two will go to a June primary.

Leavitt said he didn't have a prediction.

"One of the three of us is going to drop (off the ballot)," Chaffetz said. "When that happens, I think I can go over 60 percent. I think there will be a change Saturday. The delegates have wanted to make a change for a long time, but they haven't been able to find anyone they felt they could believe in."

To that end, Chaffetz sent out the handwritten postcards.

"It took me a good month" to write 1,100 notes, he said. "I went through eight Sharpies, but those are real. I personally wrote all of them. I have terrible penmanship as everyone now knows."

Republicans who challenge Cannon face a real dilemma because their audience changes dramatically from the party's convention to its primary. A 1990s Brigham Young University study showed that convention delegates in Utah are far more conservative than primary voters.

Jacob learned it was still true two years ago, when he outpolled Cannon at the convention and then lost soundly to Cannon in the primary.

"Nobody is going to beat Chris Cannon in a primary by being perceived as more conservative than he is," BYU political science professor Quin Monson said. "That makes it tricky, because you may need to be perceived as more conservative to beat him at convention.

"John Jacob ran to Cannon's right and didn't make it," Monson said. "The problem with that comparison was that John Jacob wasn't that strong a candidate. He came off as not professional, not quite ready for prime time."