How tenuous is BYU's NCAA bubble perch?

PROVO —

So, how firm a roost does BYU have as a bubble squatter for an NCAA Tournament berth?

Will the West Coast Conference get three invites to the Big Dance?

Is the only sure way for the Cougars to make it to the NCAAs again to win the WCC tournament at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas the first week of March?

Firm.

Likely.

Yes.

The Cougars can get to 21 wins today when they host Pepperdine, but an NCAA Tournament berth is not in the bag unless the Cougars can win the rest of their games. It would help if they deliver a repeat victory over Gonzaga in Spokane, Wash., later this month.

Things did get a little better for BYU coach Dave Rose when Gonzaga upset St. Mary's on Thursday. That added weight to BYU's win over the Zags in Provo.

In the latest Bracket Matrix, a compilation of 60 different prognosticators, BYU is included in 57 projected brackets with an average seed of 11. The guessers put the Cougars anywhere from a No. 9 to 12 seed. Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com places the Cougars as a No. 13 seed.

Such speculation hikes the hope meter for the Cougars.

Many so-called experts project the WCC will get three teams in the tournament (St. Mary's, Gonzaga, BYU), the MWC will get four (San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Wyoming) and the Pac-12 one (Cal).

The Cougars will be lucky to get in, but things are not as dire as a week ago and better than things were looking earlier this week when some pondered the dilemma of whether any Utah schools would make it in the NCAA tourney.

It would help if BYU sharpshooters found a remedy for their ailing 3-point producing elbows and wrists in wake of 17 of 101 from distance the last six games.

This might be a more important fix than any other issue. Because of BYU's inside attack with Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock, the offense is flowing through them right now, and as teams throw double or triple teams at them, the kick-out pass to a shooter becomes crucial.

It is a bigger factor than the nagging injury to Stephen Rogers and Chris Collinsworth and even the setback Brock Zylstra had this week with an ankle injury. Zylstra is questionable for today's game.

Jimmer Fredette once said shooters have to have short memories, they just have to keep shooting.