Egypt's craziness is due to old guard lickspittles

WASHINGTON — Recent provocations by Egypt are both serious and mysterious.

In December, its government conducted a series of armed raids on respected human rights and democracy organizations. Egyptian courts are pursuing transparently fraudulent prosecutions against several dozen employees of those groups, including 19 Americans. Six American citizens are being kept in Egypt against their will. One is Sam LaHood, the son of the secretary of transportation.

All these actions seem designed to offend. But who in Egypt is capable of doing the designing? With Hosni Mubarak gone, the government is a riot of factions. The military remains powerful but insecure about its future role. Mubarak's permanent bureaucracy — members of the National Democratic Party — still grasp for influence. Emerging parliamentary leaders are enemies of Egypt's old guard, but hardly friends of America. In assessing Egypt's recent conduct, it is difficult to discern the working of a single will.

One proposed explanation for these events — pinning the blame on the Arab Spring — is certainly wrong. In fact, we are seeing the rage of a retreating elite. Mubarak's lackeys fear they may someday share Mubarak's cage. So they are attempting to deflect criticism by rousing resentment toward outsiders. Military leaders and apparatchiks who depended on American support for decades are now playing the anti-American card. It is the revenge of the lickspittles.

A cutoff of American assistance to Egypt — which runs at more than $1 billion a year — would be fully justified. But not everything justifiable is advisable.

America has a large stake in Egypt's future — and very few tools to influence it. The economic collapse of Egypt — a real possibility — would be a disaster for the region. Radicalism would grow wild in the ruins. Were Egypt to abandon its Camp David commitments, the stability of Israel's southern border could no longer be assumed. The quarantine of Hamas would be weakened.

None of this, in the end, may be preventable. But we don't yet know. During the next six months, Egypt will adjust to a new parliament, elect a new president and begin drafting a new constitution. During this formative period, America will want methods to influence events. Isolating Egypt might strengthen the wrong people at a pivotal time. It is easier for an engaged America to push for democracy, pluralism and sanity.