Breaking down the competition for best new artist Grammy

The erratic history of Grammy's best new artist award hopscotches from bull's-eyes (The Beatles) and head-scratchers (A Taste of Honey) to one-hit wonders (Starland Vocal Band) and scandals (Milli Vanilli). And then there's always speculation about the category's curse: win it and risk fading (Paula Cole, Jody Watley, Shelby Lynne, Christopher Cross, Men at Work, Tracy Chapman, Arrested Development).

This year's five contenders appear to be a solid group likely to resist the prize's traditional threats, says Questlove, a presenter at the Grammy Awards airing Sunday (CBS, 8 p.m. ET/tape delay PT).

"I don't know if the jinx theory still holds today, at least professionally," he says. "In personal terms, well, Amy Winehouse (who won the 2007 trophy) isn't with us anymore."

The musician, writer and producer agreed to evaluate and handicap the 2012 slate. His credentials? He's the drummer for The Roots, the Grammy-winning neo-soul house band for Late Night With Jimmy Fallon, and sees a parade of new and established artists every week. He's produced artists from Jay-Z and Al Green to Winehouse and John Legend. And he's a self-described "walking Spotify" in the process of digitizing his 70,000-record collection.

"Most music consumers get what's fed to them, and then there are hunters and gatherers like me," says Questlove, 41, currently soaking up the Black Keys, Duke Ellington's late phase and bygone psychedelic soul band Rotary Connection.

Here's how he sizes up the new artist field:

Nicki Minaj

"She'll wind up the winner," Questlove says of the hip-pop sensation whose debut "Pink Friday" peaked at No. 1 and spawned "Super Bass," a beat-crazy smash that has sold close to 3.8 million downloads. "The Recording Academy is part shock and awe, as with (winner) Esperanza Spalding last year, but it's also about the big story, and that's Nicki. She started as a street rapper, got buzz with some YouTube clips, got with Lil Wayne and played the Madonna card to the hilt, reinventing her image."

While her persona has eclipsed her art, "she's quite incredible at her craft," he says. "The Grammys haven't championed a female emcee of this caliber since Lauryn Hill in 1998."

Bon Iver