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Tax reform in this election year: It's not likely

By Tom Raum

Associated Press

Published: Monday, Feb. 6 2012 11:36 a.m. MST

FILE - In this Feb. 3, 2012, file photo Republican presidential candidate, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich campaigns in Las Vegas. Politicians of all stripes in this election year are clamoring for simplifying the tax code and closing loopholes. But that would mean Americans could lose some of their prized deductions. Tax reform does sound like a good idea to lots of people, but where to start? Eliminate the deduction for home mortgages? End the write-off for charitable contributions? How about expanding the Social Security payroll tax? Not likely. In fact, none of the major tax overhaul proposals now on the table seems likely to be enacted given the current political situation in Washington and the country.

Evan Vucci, File, Associated Press

WASHINGTON — Tax reform sounds like a good idea to lots of people, but where to start? Eliminate the popular deduction for home mortgages? End the write-off for charitable contributions? How about expanding the Social Security payroll tax?

Not likely.

Politicians of all stripes in this presidential election year are clamoring for simplifying the tax code and closing loopholes. But that would mean Americans would lose some of their prized deductions.

Not that Congress actually is likely to end tax breaks for home loans or religious and charitable contributions anytime soon. President Barack Obama and his chief Republican challengers — Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich — certainly aren't advocating that.

In fact, recommendations to trim the mortgage deduction made in 2005 by a tax-overhaul panel convened by then President George W. Bush and again in 2010 by a deficit-reduction committee set up by Obama were ignored by both those presidents.

Overhauling the complex U.S. tax code could mean that for everyone who would pay less someone else would pay more. And every existing provision in the code has its advocates.

"Tax reform is ferociously difficult. If you tackle it straight up, the likelihood of success is rather small," said Henry Aaron, a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution. "Whenever you try to take money away from somebody, they will fight harder to keep it than will those who stand to gain."

And if deficit reduction is also a goal, it makes the job even harder.

Most recently, a bipartisan deficit-reduction congressional "supercommittee" failed to meet a Thanksgiving 2011 deadline and had to disband when it could not find common ground on tax changes.

None of the major tax overhaul proposals now on the table seems likely to be enacted given the current political rancor in Washington.

Of course, a lot could depend on the outcome of the November elections.

For now, the urgency for both parties is focused on the Bush-era tax cuts, scheduled to expire at year's end. Republicans generally want to make them permanent. Democrats would like to raise taxes on the wealthy but keep them at present levels for all others.

The income tax as we now know it has been around for nearly 100 years, and it's had only a few major overhauls.

The last major restructuring came in 1986, when Republican President Ronald Reagan and Democratic House Speaker Thomas P. O'Neill were able to put aside their political differences to strike a grand deal that both simplified the tax code and lowered rates on most individuals.

"To get comprehensive tax reform, you have to have tremendous presidential leadership. There's no way around that to be successful," said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, who was the director of the Congressional Budget Office from 2003 to 2005 and now heads the American Action Forum, a conservative public policy institute.

In addition to being a hot issue on the campaign trail, tax reform is also being closely studied by congressional leaders who oversee tax-writing, Holtz-Eakin said. "So with all the key players all saying 'Let's do it,' I think that's promising."

"Now the next issue is, what is 'it'?" There, we don't have a consensus," he added.

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