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Analysis: How economy is viewed can differ sharply

By Ben Feller

Associated Press

Published: Saturday, Feb. 4 2012 1:15 a.m. MST

President Barack Obama talks about the economy during an event at Fire Station #5 in Arlington, Va., Friday, Feb. 3, 2012.

Susan Walsh, Associated Press

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WASHINGTON — The stronger the economy gets, the more the presidential race comes down to what voters believe: Are things actually getting better? Or is it all still a mess?

If the economy's direction is the key, President Barack Obama's hand just keeps getting better.

A new snapshot Friday showed the unemployment rate has tumbled to 8.3 percent. That means it is almost back to where it was right after Obama took office, a time when a monstrous recession was still gobbling up American jobs. Hiring is now on a consistent upswing. Employers added nearly twice as many jobs last year as they did in 2010.

With every fresh batch of economic data, the Republicans challenging Obama and the president himself try to spin the numbers to their advantage, depicting either a nation mired in trouble or one showing undeniable signs of progress. Both often seem to be true.

So whichever side sways people on where to put their focus — on America's lingering economic hole or on the fact that the country is climbing out of it — will have an enormous edge toward winning the White House.

Shortly after the jobs report was released, Obama sounded more confident than ever, declaring: "The recovery is speeding up."

The Republicans say that's none of his doing, that improvements have come in spite of his policies, not because of them. There's still a long way to go before full recovery; federal deficits and Europe's troubles hang ominously over the U.S.; unemployment could worsen again.

But there's little doubt that the brightening picture, which is also reflected in other economic indicators, has seriously complicated the messaging for the GOP.

It wasn't long ago that the unemployment rate was closer to 10 percent and stagnant, making it easier for them to claim nothing was getting better under Obama. Now they have to calibrate.

"I believe the economy will come back. It always does," said Mitt Romney, the Republican front-runner, during a campaign stop in Nevada. He blamed Obama's policies for slowing the recovery, hurting families, and making it harder for businesses to bounce back. "And for that," Romney said, "the president deserves the blame that he'll receive in this campaign."

The bigger opening for Republicans has to do with the burden still resting on Obama's shoulders: Millions of people don't feel any better yet, no matter what the statistics show.

About 12.8 million people remain out of work, and an additional 11 million have either given up looking or can find only part-time jobs. Typical wages have failed to keep up with inflation. Nearly 43 percent of those out of work have been unemployed for at least six months.

And many people around the nation are struggling to make monthly payments on homes that are now worth less than their purchase price.

So Republicans are trying to shift the question away from whether the economy is getting better to whether their party would do much better yet. That argument can be heard from the campaign trail to Capitol Hill, where House Speaker John Boehner accurately pointed out that unemployment has topped 8 percent for 36 months in a row under Obama

Obama's campaign, while noting recent improvements, is eager to frame the election around the question of which candidate has a better and more hopeful economic vision for the next four years and beyond.

The contrast there, in policies, is remarkably clear. Obama promises to use government as a lever to ensure fairness. Opponents Romney and Newt Gingrich promise to repeal Obama legislation they say has helped weaken the economy, such as his health care law and tighter rules on Wall Street behavior.

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