Death of North Korean leader provides opportunities for U.S.
WASHINGTON — The death of North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Il, and the ascendance to power of one of his sons, Kim Jong Un, creates some opportunities and potential traps for the United States — things leaders should be sure to say and be sure not to say.
First, we should recognize that we have been here before. Sort of. In 1994, I learned of the death of Kim Il Sung in an early morning telephone call from the South Korean foreign minister. I was in Geneva leading negotiations with the North Koreans over their nuclear weapons program.
The first question in the minds of those in Washington and Seoul was how the transition of power in North Korea from father to son would change things — whether the negotiations would continue, whether it would be business as usual or the beginning of a crisis.
We preferred the former and, as it turned out, so did the North. The talks continued and an agreement was signed that stopped the North's plutonium production until we abandoned the deal eight years later, because of the North's cheating in uranium enrichments technology.
We may be as fortunate this time, even though this son is a lot younger and less experienced than his father was when he assumed authority. The traditional mourning period in Korea is a year, and even Kim Jong Il, who was by then a familiar figure in North Korean power circles, took almost that long before assuming all the leadership positions his own father had held. The lesson here is patience: we should resist drawing conclusions too soon about who is really in charge in North Korea.
Heading the "do not say" list for any American leader, or would-be leader, is that this is the time to promote or provoke regime change in North Korea.
There may never be a good time to openly advocate the overthrow of the government in Pyongyang and certainly the moment when a new young leader may have to decide whether he needs to prove his leadership prowess is definitely not the right time. Insisting on regime change now creates no incentive for this government to even consider negotiations, or to contemplate backing off or ever giving up its nuclear weapons program. It is just plain dumb.
What does make sense is to continue to deplore the humanitarian catastrophe that is life in North Korea and to say that we would welcome the day when the government there moved toward democratic governance and a free economy.
Among the first things we should tell the North is that we remain prepared to enter discussions aimed at halting, rolling back and ultimately dismantling its nuclear weapons program. This may sound like old news, but it is not.
The Obama administration has been sensitive to the domestic political needs of its ally, South Korea, which demand that before proceeding to talks, the United States should obtain some acknowledgement from the North of responsibility for the deaths caused by the sinking of a South Korean ship and the shelling of a South Korean island.
We should not be in the business of teaching other governments lessons. We should adopt the best policies to protect our national security. Right now, that means entering a serious discussion about the North's nuclear weapons program, aimed at its dismantlement.
Finally, there is an opportunity for the administration to tell the North Koreans something hard and realistic that they desperately need to hear during a transition to new leadership: the U.S. will not tolerate the transfer to another government or terrorist group of any nuclear weapons material or technology or fissile material, and we will respond with devastating consequences for the North if we learn of such a transfer.
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