Downgrade threat, Geithner push EU to agree plan

By Sarah Dilorenzo

Associated Press

Published: Tuesday, Dec. 6 2011 12:00 a.m. MST

Workers change tube lights of the Euro sculpture in front of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, Tuesday, Dec.6, 2011.

Michael Probst, Associated Press

BERLIN — European nations were pressed Tuesday by a credit downgrade threat and the U.S. Treasury chief to deliver on markets' huge hopes for a solution to the 2-year-old financial crisis engulfing the continent.

Germany and France downplayed Standard & Poor's warnings to downgrade 15 eurozone nations and Europe's bailout fund. But a downgrade of their AAA ratings would complicate their efforts to restore investor confidence in Europe.

Loans from the bailout fund have rescued Ireland, Portugal and Greece, but if the fund loses its own AAA rating, it could have to charge higher rates to rescue countries in the future, making it tougher for them to recover.

That heaps more uncertainty on the fund, which many had already dismissed as too small to bail out a country like Italy. Help from abroad also seemed unlikely — U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the Federal Reserve has no plans to give money to the International Monetary Fund to bolster Europe's bailout fund.

He is on a three-day tour of Europe to express U.S. support but also, many say, to impress on regional leaders the need to get their crisis plan right. A break-up of the eurozone would have dire consequences for the global economy.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said the S&P ratings warning may not be all bad, since it could spur action at a European summit this week billed as the meeting "to save the euro."

"We take this assessment as further reassurance to do everything to achieve a good result on December 9th," Schaeuble said in Vienna.

The markets also largely shrugged off the news, perhaps because they had long ago resigned themselves to the fact that the eurozone's credit ratings might be lowered. Investors have recently been charging even big countries like France more to borrow, suggesting they did not quite believe in the AAA ratings.

S&P's first warning — on the 15 countries' ratings — came Monday, just hours after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy urged changes to the European Union treaty that would centralize decision-making on spending and borrowing for the 17 countries that use the euro.

While those reforms will likely take months or years to implement, European leaders hope they will impress the European Central Bank or the International Monetary Fund enough to persuade one or both to step into the breach quickly with more financial aid.

While there is a sense that leaders are simply scrambling to come up with the formula that induces the ECB to act, Moritz Kraemer, S&P's head of sovereign ratings for Europe, cautioned that ECB action would not in itself save the AAA ratings. He told reporters Tuesday that a credible plan to solve the crisis was also needed.

The German and French leaders shot back Tuesday that they had just unveiled one, and that the agency had jumped the gun in putting the eurozone on notice.

"What strikes me is the time-lag of this announcement," French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe told RTL radio. Merkel and Sarkozy's proposals are "exactly the response to one of the major questions from the ratings agency, which talks about insufficient European economic governance."

While it's true that S&P had already made its decision by Monday, when it warned leaders of it, the contents of Sarkozy and Merkel's proposals later that afternoon couldn't have been that surprising to analysts at S&P. They included introducing an automatic penalty for any government that allows its deficit to exceed 3 percent of GDP; requiring countries to promise to balance their budgets; pledging that any future bailouts would not require private bond investors to absorb a part of the costs, as was the case for the Greek bailout; and reiterating a promise not to criticize the ECB.

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