Predicting the presidential election, one year out

We routinely make great nuisances of ourselves by doing the easy thing: pontificating on events that have already occurred and have become history ("shooting the wounded" is the best description).

So in this column, we do the harder thing: prophesy the presidential future. Of course, no consequences will occur if we are wrong (we already have bad reputations), and no one really cares what we say, so the risk factor isn't all that high. But with Election Day 2012 less than a year away, if we're right you can say you read it here first, and if we're wrong you'll hopefully have forgotten all about our prognostications.

Who will be the GOP nominee and why?

Pignanelli: "The hardest thing about any political campaign is how to win without proving that you are unworthy of winning." — Adlai Stevenson

The GOP will behave as Democrats (screw-up an automatic victory) and nominate someone other than Jon Huntsman, the only candidate who could trounce President Barack Obama. Instead, Republicans refuse to endorse Mitt Romney early and force him to compete in most primary/caucus states in early 2012, providing opportunities for Romney to be bruised and abused by the media. The stranger anti-Romney alternatives (Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum) receive their slice of attention. GOP delegates eventually — and begrudgingly — choose Romney in the convention. The former Massachusetts governor is selected for the worst reasons: he is not too crazy, he patronized most of the special interest groups and played it safe. Romney is the sweater in the drawer, comfortable but not a joy to wear.

Webb: Romney wins the nomination, mostly because he'll be the last guy standing and he's the best candidate to defeat Obama (although Huntsman would also do well). Newt Gingrich is the only GOP challenger in Romney's way, and it's doubtful Gingrich will weather the intense media scrutiny being unleashed on him as a front-runner.

Despite Romney's excellent race so far, the path to the nomination will be rocky. He will face crises, accusations, and setbacks. But he is the candidate with the money and organization to fight on multiple fronts and avoid make-or-break expectations in a particular state (although he certainly needs some early wins). Ultimately, Republicans want a nominee who can defeat Obama, and Romney's the guy.

Who will be elected president and why?