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GOP candidates face early test in 2012 campaign

By Philip Elliott

Associated Press

Published: Saturday, Aug. 13 2011 12:55 p.m. MDT

Republican presidential candidate, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, Jr. speaks with Sara Brothers, left, and Rebecca Brothers of Tilton, N.H. during a campaign stop at the Barley House restaurant, Friday, Aug. 12, 2011 in Concord, N.H.

Jim Cole, Associated Press

AMES, Iowa — Thousands of Iowa Republicans munched on barbecue and mingled with presidential hopefuls on a college campus where they began voting Saturday in the first test to see how the candidates trying to unseat President Barack Obama are faring with the GOP base.

Results from the straw poll in this leadoff caucus state were due out just hours after Texas Gov. Rick Perry entered the race.

"I full well believe I'm going to win," Perry told South Carolina voters on a conference call about an hour before he kicked off the campaign with a speech in Charleston.

Under bright sunshine and mild weather, activists strolled through tents erected by the campaigns for live music and roamed the campus of Iowa State University. Voting started at 11 a.m. EDT and was to run until 5 p.m. EDT.

Those willing to shell out $30 for a ticket were eligible to vote, though some campaigns paid for tickets they distributed to backers. Some also organized bus caravans to bring backers to the event. Turnout in the past has ranged from 14,000 to 23,000.

The poll results are nonbinding, amount to a popularity contest and offer candidates a chance to test their get-out-the-vote organizations. Nonetheless, the outcome probably will provide a road map for the Iowa campaign heading into the caucuses that are just four months away.

To the state party chairman, Matt Strawn, the poll "is the first measurable proving ground" for the field.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads national polls and many states' surveys for the chance to challenge Obama next fall. But there is no shortage of rivals looking to emerge as the top alternative to Romney, who lost the nomination in 2008 to Arizona Sen. John McCain.

The candidates with the most to lose in the poll were two Minnesotans competing to fill that role: Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty and U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann.

They clashed during Thursday's debate in Ames, when Bachmann said Pawlenty "sounds a lot like Barack Obama if you ask me" and Pawlenty accused her of having "a record of misstating and making false statements."

Pawlenty, languishing in early Iowa polls, hoped a victory would prove he's a strong player in the race. Bachmann wanted to build on momentum she's enjoyed since entering the race this summer.

"For some people, this is make or break," tea party activist Ryan Rhodes said.

Nine candidates were on the ballot. Voting was to run for six hours during the daylong political festival on the campus of Iowa State University.

Romney won the straw poll four years ago but isn't actively competing this time, and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who has bypassed Iowa almost entirely, weren't scheduled to be in the state. Both spent Friday in New Hampshire.

Perry and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who made a splash Friday when she visited the state fair, weren't on the ballot. But their supporters planned write-in campaigns that could outpace candidates who have spent months trying to line up supporters to participate.

Others on the ballot included former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, businessman Herman Cain and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

Firing up his supporters, Santorum urged his supporters to defy expectations.

"We will do something that no reporter in this town thinks can happen," he said. "We can win this thing."

Across the parking lots, Paul referenced his fellow Texan's entrance in the race and said he didn't anticipate many of his supporters jumping ship for what he called a "super-establishment candidate."

And Pawlenty, trying to control expectations, predicted the results would show "momentum." He did not promise his supporters a win.

"Part of it is whether the message resonates, but the bottom line is you better be pretty well organized," Iowa Christian Alliance head Steve Scheffler said.

The straw poll has a mixed record of predicting the outcome of the precinct caucuses.

In 2008, Romney won the straw poll, but the big news was the surprising second-place showing of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses, but dropped from the race soon after. McCain, who eventually won the nomination, didn't compete in the straw poll and finished in 10th place.

Poor showings usually force some candidates, mostly those who are not well-known and are struggling to raise money, to abandon their bids, and that could happen this year, too.

GOP strategist Rich Galen called it "a winnowing process and that might happen to Pawlenty if he doesn't do well. It sort of serves as a filter to clean out the candidates who probably shouldn't be there in the first place."

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