Is tea party influence waning or growing in Utah's elections?

We're in the summer doldrums, but there is plenty of political intrigue to keep political junkies abundantly titillated.

Rep. Carl Wimmer, a Tea Party darling, has made it abundantly clear he's running for a congressional seat, even though he doesn't know which one. Is he already the frontrunner?

Pignanelli: "Nothing can so alienate a voter from the political system as backing a winning candidate." — Mark B. Cohen. Almost daily, a politically engaged moderate Republican (usually from Salt Lake City) or Democrat will inquire of me as to whether "that crazy Wimmer guy" is going to run and can he win? My standard response always causes jaws to drop. Love him or hate him — Wimmer is a force in Utah politics. He was on the cutting-edge of the states' rights national effort as a charter founder of the Patrick Henry Caucus. He is a favorite among tea party activists and the uber right-wing organizations. The gregarious Wimmer is not a grumpy conservative (i.e. Newt Gingrich) but more of the happy warrior (i.e. Jack Kemp). He understands and uses the new media, a huge benefit in 21st-century politics.

Most importantly, Wimmer is a shrewd political operative and is playing to the GOP delegates (similar to Jason Chaffetz in 2008). Of course, Wimmer could face a challenge in the new district from well-respected heavyweights Sen. Steve Urquhart and Rep. David Clark. Every day, some politicos laugh at Wimmer; and he will laugh with them — all the way to his swearing-in.

Webb: It's hard to anoint a frontrunner without seeing the new district boundaries. Wimmer could conceivably end up in the same district as Chaffetz, though that's unlikely. But as the only announced candidate, the only candidate who's been lining up support and working hard for many months on the race, Wimmer is well ahead of everyone else. Any open congressional seat (including the 3rd District if Chaffetz runs for the Senate) will attract a big crowd, so Wimmer will have plenty of competition. But it takes an immense amount of grassroots work to be successful in these races, and those who dither and dally will be left behind. The March caucuses are only a little more than nine months away. Wimmer was smart to get out early, and no one should underestimate him.

A big question is whether, given the current political environment, a more mainstream Utah Republican has any chance of winning a Republican nomination for major office in this state, or whether upcoming nomination battles are going to be far-right-only affairs. Given the results of recent county and state conventions, I see little hope for a mainstream, pragmatic, problem-solving candidate — unless mainstream people turn out in big numbers at the March caucuses.