Fourth of July turns kids into Republicans

If a study from Harvard University is correct, the Fourth of July may turn kids into Republicans.

As long as it doesn't rain. Rain, it turns out, is the Democrats' friend — keeping kids away from patriotic celebrations that, as the study claims, turns kids toward the GOP. "Our estimates are significant: one Fourth of July without rain before age 18 raises the likelihood of identifying as a Republican by 2 percent and voting for the Republican candidate by 4 percent. It also increases voter turnout by 0.9 percent and boosts political campaign contributions by 3 percent," the report by Andreas Madestam and David Yanagizawa-Drott says. "Taken together, the evidence suggests that important childhood events can have persistent effects on political beliefs and participation and that Fourth of July celebrations in the US affect the nation's political landscape."

Beliefnet warns, "Keep your kids away from patriotic events - celebrating America's heritage will turn them into Republicans."

The study says that Fourth of July celebrations are very kid-centric — and that adults with children will participate more often in patriotic activities on that day than adults without children. Republicans also participate more than Democrats. So to eliminate this built-in bias, the study looked at how much it literally rains on people's parades on the Fourth. So the more it rains on the holiday's traditional outdoors events, the less people will participate. Sunny skies means more participation in the Fourth's outdoor activities.

"(W)e show that the likelihood that an adult at age 40 identifies as a Republican increases by 0.76 percentage points for each rain-free Fourth of July during childhood, where childhood is defined as the ages of 3-18. There is no evidence of an increased likelihood of identifying as a Democrat, indicating that Fourth of July shifts preferences to the right rather than increasing political polarization."

Paul Bedard at U.S.News & World Report looked at the study. "Democrats gain nothing from July 4th parades," Bedard writes, "likely a shocking result for all the Democratic politicians who march in them."

The implications are, according to Bedard, "if people are looking for a super-patriotic July 4th, they should head to Republican towns."

But if people want more Democrats, hope for rain.

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