Terror 'franchises' pose huge post-Bin Laden risk

They kidnap Westerners in the deserts of Africa, turn Western-born Muslims into radicals, send bombs to the United States from Yemen and mount bloody attacks in Iraq and Pakistan.

These homegrown terror groups worldwide are informally dubbed al-Qaida franchises — affiliates that do most of their own fundraising, recruiting and killing. The question now is this: What impact will the death of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden have on the ability and willingness of the franchises to mount attacks?

Emails found on flash drives from bin Laden's hideout in Pakistan two weeks ago show that he was communicating more than Western intelligence had thought. But al-Qaida's ideology plays a much bigger role in fostering terror than bin Laden's personal involvement, said Gen. David Richards, Britain's top military chief.

"Yemen, Somalia and other places in the Middle East are today more important in a counter-terror context than what was going on...in Osama's compound," Richards told British lawmakers.

Several al-Qaida franchises have vowed retaliation for bin Laden's death, but it's unclear how much of a threat they pose. The biggest terrorist plots to date have been pulled off or directed by al-Qaida itself, including the Sept. 11 attacks and the 2005 London suicide bombings.

However, al-Qaida franchises were responsible for the 2008 attacks in the Indian city of Mumbai that killed 166, and the 2002 attacks on a Bali island night club that killed 202 people, many foreign tourists.

The head of Britain's domestic spy agency MI5, Jonathan Evans, has said it's only a matter of time before "we see terrorism on our streets" from the al-Qaida movement in Somalia, known as al-Shabab. He also said it is likely that al-Qaida supporters in the Arabian Peninsula will step up attacks on Western targets.

The fight to bring down al-Qaida franchises will depend on painstaking coordination among intelligence agencies worldwide. Rohan Gunaratna, who heads the Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research in Singapore, predicted that al-Qaida and the franchises are "likely to pose an enduring threat in the foreseeable future."

Al-Qaida now has about 10 major franchises, although the Afghanistan-Pakistan group has splintered into smaller and more dangerous ones. Al-Qaida provides ideological inspiration and sometimes direct training and funding. The franchises have goals within their own regions but also international aspirations, which include U.S. and European targets.