Time to speculate on elections, immigration, etc.

Welcome to spring, finally. The warm weather brings rising waters, to go along with a flood of political speculation.

In 2010, Republicans started bouncing back in Salt Lake County. Are the Republicans poised to win the Salt Lake County mayorship in 2012?

Pignanelli: "Sure there are dishonest men in local government. But there are dishonest men in national government too." — Richard M. Nixon. Although 18 months away, this race is grabbing the attention of politicos — for various reasons: there are no announced challengers in the high-profile races (U.S. Senate/governor/congress) and the election for Salt Lake City Mayor is a snooze (Ralph Becker is as popular as a Navy SEAL Commando). In this vacuum, the Republican contenders are generating the public awareness. West Valley City Mayor Mike Winder is already campaigning for the office. But others are seriously considering the GOP nomination, including Salt Lake County Councilman Richard Snelgrove and former Councilman Mark Crockett.

Democrats are also fielding a strong bench for the position. Senate Minority Leader Ross Romero is already soliciting county delegates, to establish a beachhead at the convention. County Councilman Jim Bradley enjoys name identification and a deep reputation for ethical thoughtfulness. Deputy Mayor Nicole Adams Dunn has access to the formidable Corroon machine, along with the potential endorsement from her boss. County Democrats enjoy the advantage that the outgoing incumbent, Peter Corroon, is popular. Also, in general, county voters are moderate and independent; neither party can claim it as a bastion. Therefore, between the convention and the general election, Republicans are in for a long fight.

Webb: One of the most remarkable results of the 2010 gubernatorial election was that Gov. Gary Herbert actually defeated the popular Mayor Corroon in Salt Lake County. Remember that in the gubernatorial election of 2004, former Gov. Jon Huntsman lost to Democrat Scott Matheson by 20,000 votes in the county. So Republicans have made significant progress. If Republicans nominate a solid mayoral candidate, and if Utahns turn out big for the GOP presidential nominee against President Obama, Democrats will have a hard time hanging on to the mayorship.

But Salt Lake County remains a swing county, and if Republicans nominate a far-right ideologue, they will lose. If Democrats nominate a far-left ideologue, they will lose. Both parties will need to nominate mainstream, problem-solving candidates.

The battle over HB116, the immigration bill providing guest worker status, has exposed deep fissures within the Republican Party. How will it all play out in the caucuses, conventions and elections of 2012?