Investors expect Greece to renege on debt deals

By Elena Becatoros

Associated Press

Published: Tuesday, April 19 2011 12:00 a.m. MDT

A man walks next a closed shop in Athens, on Tuesday, April 19, 2011. Greece had to pay a higher rate to raise euro1.65 billion ($2.36 billion) on Tuesday as market pressures increased amid fears the government will have to default on its massive debt load.

Petros Giannakouris, Associated Press

ATHENS, Greece — Investors increasingly expect Greece will not pull itself out of its financial hole and will have to renege on some debt payments, despite spending a year on bailout loans making painful austerity reforms.

The concern that bailouts and austerity, once Europe's hailed recipe for the crisis, are insufficient and that debt jitters are particularly difficult to control once unleashed has resonated globally. Even the U.S., whose debt investors have huge faith in, was warned by a ratings agency this week about its heavy borrowings.

Despite repeated insistence from Greek and EU officials that there are no thoughts of restructuring Greece's debt, markets are predicting that will happen eventually, that the €110 billion ($157 billion) international plan to save the country's finances is failing despite sweeping government reforms.

"It's not the fault of the markets," said economic analyst Vangelis Agapitos. "Its the fact that 18 months since the very beginning of this crisis, we still have vague plans as to how we're going to counter the beast, which is a huge government, a difficult to tame deficit and a very large debt."

The government imposed broad and painful reforms to overhaul the economy. It has cut public sector salaries and pensions, hiked sales and income taxes and tried to crack down on widespread tax evasion and open up protected professions to more competition.

But while the measures have helped keep the deficit from growing too quickly, they have also hindered growth, keeping the country in recession. Shops and boutiques in popular shopping districts have closed down at an alarming rate, their shuttered windows plastered with "for rent" signs as Greeks curb their spending.

While unemployment spirals to 15.1 percent, the streets of Athens are hit by repeated demonstrations, and all sectors — from lawyers to port workers, doctors to taxi drivers — have staged frequent strikes. The country faces yet another general strike on May 11.

The question hanging over Greece — and the 17-nation eurozone — is whether the country's debts are so big that they cannot ever be paid back. The European Union and the government say that Greece, in financial terminology, is not insolvent but only illiquid — that it can pay its loans back, just not now.

Investors, however, are not convinced. Market prices show they are ready for Greece to restructure some of its €340 billion ($486 billion) in outstanding debts — by extending debt repayments or paying back less than the full amount it borrowed.

Economists say the government's strenuous efforts, even with a bailout, are bumping up against the limits of what taxing and spending can do.

Such strict austerity may reduce deficits, but it hurts growth by adding tax burdens and reducing the stimulus effect of government outlays. Lower growth, in turn, reduces the tax revenues needed to start paying down debt. Markets can see that, and demand higher interest rates, which make things worse.

"If something is unsustainable the only question is one of timing, whether it is this year, next year or 2013," said Zsolt Darva, an economist at the Breugel research institute in Brussels who thinks a restructuring could be managed so as not to damage the euro currency.

Some analysts argue that despite all the noise, a restructuring now is ill-advised.

"We believe that a near term restructuring of Greek market debt makes little sense and that there is a misunderstanding in some of the press about what the issues on the table are," said David Mackie, head of Western European Economic Research at J.P. Morgan, noting that there are various kinds of debt which can be restructured in a variety of ways.

It is reasonable for the government to be discussing a restructuring with the IMF and EU, Mackie said. "However, we doubt very much that the Greek government is trying to get an agreement to restructure its market debt in the near term."

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