News analysis: Egypt's path after uprising does not have to follow Iran's

By Anthony Shadid

New York Times News Service

Published: Saturday, Feb. 12 2011 12:00 a.m. MST

CAIRO — Two Egyptian leaders have been struck down in 30 years: one by an Islamist assassin's bullets, the other by the demands of hundreds of thousands of protesters in a peaceful uprising. The first event, the death of President Anwar Sadat, marked a spectacle of the most militant brand of political Islam. The revolution the world witnessed Friday, the toppling of President Hosni Mubarak, may herald the dawn of something else.

There is a fear in the West, one rarely echoed here, that Egypt's revolution could go the way of Iran's, when radical Islamists ultimately commandeered a movement that began with a far broader base. But the two are very different countries. In Egypt, the uprising offers the possibility of an accommodation with political Islam rare in the Arab world — that without the repression that accompanied Mubarak's rule, Islam could present itself in a more moderate guise.

Egypt's was a revolution of diversity, a proliferation of voices — of youth, women, and workers as well as the religious — all of which will struggle for influence. Here, political Islam will most likely face a new kind of challenge: proving its relevance and popularity in a country undergoing seismic change.

''Choosing a regime will become the right of the people," Ali Abdel-Fattah, a Muslim Brotherhood leader, said Saturday. "The nature of the regime will be decided by elections. And I think Egyptians agree on the demands and how to realize them."

Of countries in the region, only Turkey has managed to incorporate currents of political Islam into a system that has so far proven viable, but its bold experiment remains unfinished. The rest of the region is strewn with disasters, from the ascent of the most militant strands in Iraq after the American invasion to the rise of populist and combative movements in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon that emerged under Israeli occupation.

In Egypt, repression of its Islamic activists helped give rise to the most extremist forces in the Muslim world — leadership of al-Qaida in Afghanistan and an insurgency against its own government in the 1990s.

But at its core the revolt that finally toppled Mubarak had a very different set of demands. Its organizers rallied to broad calls for freedom, social justice and a vague sense of nationalism that coalesced around a demand that distant and often incompetent rulers had to treat them with respect. They were voiced by youth, women, workers and adherents of revived currents of liberalism, the left and Arab nationalism, spread by social networks made possible by new technology.

The Muslim Brotherhood, a mainstream group that stands as the most venerable of the Arab world's Islamic movements, is of course also a contender to lead a new Egypt. It has long been the most organized and credible opposition to Mubarak. But it also must prepare to enter the fray of an emerging democratic system, testing its staying power in a system ruled by elections and the law.

''This is not yesterday's Egypt," declared Amal Borham, a protester in the square.

''It is their right to participate as much as it is mine, as much as it is anyone else's in this country," added Borham, who considers herself secular. "They are part of this society, and they have been made to stay in the shadows for a very long time."

The protests illustrated the challenges before the Brotherhood and other Islamic groups. While the Brotherhood eventually brought its organizational prowess to the demonstrations — organizing security and deploying its followers overnight, when the protests lulled — it was reluctant to join at first. Indeed, many protesters saw it as a representative of an old guard that they believed had for so long failed to answer society's problems.

Even some of the Brotherhood's own youthful supporters expressed frustration with their leaders' cautiousness.

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