Egyptian military navigates middle ground, for now

By Jeffrey Fleishman

Los Angeles Times

Published: Sunday, Feb. 6 2011 10:00 p.m. MST

Egyptian Army Gen. Hassan El-Rueini shakes hands with an anti-government protester in Cairo on Saturday.

Associated Press

CAIRO — When bread shortages swept Egypt in 2008, the government didn't rely on the free market or its own warehouses, but turned instead to army bakeries to churn out millions of flat loaves to calm the angry masses. A few months later, as fire raced through the upper house of parliament, soldiers helped put out the flames.

The nation's military has been an enduring force for stability and the quiet power behind President Hosni Mubarak's 30-year rule. That tanks and smiling soldiers are now spread across the capital and accepted by anti-government protests is a testament to the army's unique role in keeping the public trust while remaining loyal to one of its own, the 82-year-old president.

The military's allegiances will be tested in coming days in negotiations to form a transitional government as Mubarak, whom officials are looking to nudge aside with dignity, fades as a dominating presence. But opposition groups demanding a wider voice, most notably the Muslim Brotherhood, have for years been regarded as national security threats by Defense Minister Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi.

Egypt's history of crushing dissent indicates that the tolerance the military is showing toward protesters may not hold if it senses that its interests are in jeopardy. U.S. diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks, which predate by several years the current crisis, suggest that the Egyptian military may be too rigid and unwilling to adapt to a new political era and the prospect that for the first time since 1956 the nation's president will not come from its ranks.

"Tantawi said one of the military's roles is to protect constitutional legitimacy and internal stability, signaling his willingness to use the military to control the Muslim Brotherhood in the run-up to . . . elections," says a 2008 cable the U.S. Embassy in Cairo sent to the White House.

The documents say Mubarak and Tantawi, described as "aged and change resistant," are focused on "maintaining their status quo through the end of their time. They simply do not have the energy, inclination or world view to do anything differently."

The kindred relationship between Mubarak and his chief military commander did not extend to the president's son, Gamal, who until the current crisis was expected by many to succeed his father. Gamal has no military background and the army's leadership criticized his economic reforms as benefiting the wealthy while creating "social instability" among the poor and middle class.

The cables suggest that the military, which receives more than $1.2 billion in annual U.S. aid, would intervene in politics if it believed the political order or its own interests were threatened. One document quotes an unidentified Egyptian analyst as saying he had been told by army officers "that the military does not support Gamal and if Mubarak died in office, the military would seize power rather than allow Gamal to succeed his father."

Since that memo was written three years ago, Egypt has been dramatically altered by 13 days of widespread demonstrations to overthrow Hosni Mubarak. The political calculations and the police state that held the ruling party together are being redrawn. Most of the party leadership, including Gamal, resigned Saturday, a further sign that the younger Mubarak has been forced to give up any ambitions to rule Egypt.

Protesters have joked and sung with soldiers in Tahrir Square, a sign that the army remains popular in a crisis that is all but destroying the credibility of other public institutions, especially the police. The army has vowed not to fire on protesters and has appeared to at least tacitly support the demonstrations.

What is unclear, though, is how long the military can navigate the middle ground between a rattled government and a restive people.

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