Hispanic vote may not save Democrats

PHOENIX — Arizona's controversial immigration law has prompted denunciations, demonstrations, boycotts and a federal lawsuit. But it may not bring the protest vote that many Democrats had hoped would stem a Republican onslaught in races across the country.

That is because although many voters are disillusioned with the political process, Latino voters are particularly dejected, and many may sit these elections out, according to voters, Latino organizations, political consultants and candidates.

A poll released Tuesday found that even though Latinos strongly back Democrats over Republicans, 65 percent to 22 percent, in the congressional elections just four weeks away, only 51 percent of Latino registered voters said they would absolutely go to the polls, compared with 70 percent of all registered voters.

The other side in the immigration debate is suffering no such lack of enthusiasm. One measure of its high spirits is the dance card of Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix. Arpaio conducts raids in Latino neighborhoods that have led critics to label him a racist and the Justice Department to start a racial-profiling investigation. Despised by some, he is also in demand.

The Arizona law seems to be rewriting not just the rules on immigration but also the rules on how it is talked about on the campaign trail.

Even in New Mexico, a state with a large Hispanic population and traditional tolerance for illegal immigration, the issue is seen as a vote-getter for Republicans. Susana Martinez, a prosecutor and the Republican nominee for governor, would be the first Hispanic woman to run a state if elected. She is ahead in the polls, partly on the strength of television advertisements that show her standing at the border talking about how she has convicted law-breakers who have entered the country illegally from Mexico.

Both Martinez and her Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, support ending the policy of outgoing Gov. Bill Richardson that allows illegal immigrants to get drivers' licenses, although Martinez would take away licenses from those who have already have them.

"This has been an issue that we don't usually talk about," Lonna Rae Atkeson, a political sciences professor at the University of New Mexico, said of immigration. "Something's different this year."

Political analysts and candidates say the anti-establishment sentiment roiling the electorate, as well as widespread frustration over the country's porous borders, seems to be helping candidates who favor tougher immigration rules.