Report: Expect Utah jobs to return to pre-recession levels by 2012

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah's economy held relatively steady in September, according to a new report released Friday.

The state's Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator, stayed above growth neutral 50.0, based on an monthly survey of the National Association of Purchasing Managers for Utah. The overall index dipped slightly to 54.3 from 54.8 in August and 58.5 in July.

The Goss Institute conducts the monthly survey for Supply Management Institutes in the three states comprising the Mountain States region — Colorado, Utah and Wyoming. Ernie Goss directs Creighton University's Economic Forecasting Group and is the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics.

Components of the overall index for September were new orders at 53.6, production or sales at 56.5, delivery lead time at 54.1, inventories at 50.3, and employment at 57.1.

During the national recession, Utah lost more than 76,000 jobs, said Goss. But he noted that the employment news wasn't all bad.

"Since the recession officially ended in June 2009, the state has added almost 12,000 jobs," he said. "In terms of jobs … expect the state to be back to pre-recession levels before the end of the second quarter of 2012."

For a 12th consecutive month, the overall index for the three-state mountain region moved above growth neutral 50.0. According to the September survey of supply managers in the Mountain States region, the area should experience economic growth in the months ahead with little likelihood of a double dip recession, the report states.

The overall three-state index for the month of September declined slightly from 54.7 to 54.0, according to the report.

"While growth will likely be somewhat weaker in the months ahead … expect it to remain positive for most of the region, though Colorado's expansion will be much softer than Utah's and Wyoming's," Goss said.

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