Economic indicator shows growth in Utah

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah and neighbors Colorado and Wyoming are showing slight economic growth and projections that will continue, according to a leading economic indicator for the mountain states.

For the 10th month in a row, the overall index for these three states is above the "growth neutral" level of 50, hitting 58.6 in July, according to Ernie Goss, a professor at Creighton University who conducts the survey. That is a "healthy" move upward from the overall index of 58.3 in June and 57.9 in May.

The business conditions index for Utah alone has moved up in July to 58.5 from 57.9 in June.

"The leading economic indicator is pointing to growth, not vigorous growth, but still growth," Goss said. "Utah has had some economic issues, but things are looking better. Employers are beginning to hire somewhat, although (some employers) are increasing hours more than hiring workers."

Goss said a potentially troubling problem would be the inventory restocking that he sees. "You can only restock so much. You've got to have consumers," he said.

Either consumers need to start buying, or the housing market needs to rebound for robust economic recovery to occur, he said. Goss said he does not know which will come first but suspects it will be consumer spending. Goss surveys supply managers in the three states to compile the economic indicators and to measure business conditions. He uses the same methodology for his survey as the Institute for Supply Management does for its national numbers.

Another plus for Utah, Goss said, is that "the expectations have come down dramatically about the number of layoffs, and new hiring has gone back up."

Figures in the high 50s are a good sign, according to Goss, especially since in February of last year, the numbers were in the 30s. "Anything above 50 is pointing to growth," he said.

e-mail: lindat@desnews.com