Utah Utes: Will jump from small pond to big pond go swimmingly for Utes?

Utah's leap to the Pac-10 has been the subject of much discussion lately, and it was again during the league's annual football media day Thursday in the Rose Bowl (see related story).

The acceptance of a Pac-10 invitation was a no-brainer for the Utes, of course. Just like that, they have been magically welcomed into the exclusive BCS club.

It means millions more in revenue. It means increased TV and recruiting exposure. It means an opportunity to measure Ute teams against the nation's elite on a regular basis. It means an easier road to the national title, at least in theory.

But will it be more fun? Will membership in what will become the Pac-12 be as exciting and hopeful each year as membership in the Mountain West Conference or the Western Athletic Conference? In other words, is it better to be a big fish in a small pond or a small fish in a big pond? Is it better to be a middle-tier program in the Pac-12 and an occasional contender for the conference title, or a perennial contender in the MWC?

Realistically, life in the Pac-12 will mean fewer wins, fewer conference titles and fewer bowl trips. Utah's success against the Pac-10 has been a recent phenomenon (12-11 since 1994); historically, they are 52-90-3 against teams currently in the Pac-10 (and 24-30-3 against future member Colorado).

Similarly, BYU is 33-57-1 against current Pac-10 teams (3-8-1 against Colorado) and has a losing record against every Pac-10 team except Washington State (2-1) and Cal (2-1).

In reality, Pac-10 membership will actually make it more difficult for Utah to get to a BCS bowl, not easier.

Think about it: The Utes are a BCS school. As already mentioned, that likely means fewer wins and conference titles, which decreases the odds of an invitation to a BCS bowl, not to mention the national championship.

It might actually be easier to be one of the country's BCS busters, a team trying to get inside from the outside. They have a better chance of running the table with an easier schedule. Instead of facing six or seven difficult opponents each season, they face about three. If you're working the system — a system that is vastly flawed, as we all know — that's a proven path to travel.

That's how Utah cracked the BCS — twice. That's how TCU, Hawaii and Boise State earned BCS bowl invitations. That's how BYU won the national championship in 1984. They all sneaked into the national championship picture through a loophole left open for those teams that don't belong to the elite conferences.