Confidence affects learning, BYU study shows

PROVO — Teaching a man to fish may be more beneficial than handing him a fish. But what if he wants to quit 20 minutes into the fishing lesson?

Although the pupil started out eager, a high-tech fishing pole and a frustrating near-catch have decimated his confidence, leaving him worried that he'll never get a decent seafood meal again.

The confidence roller coaster can snag anyone, whether they're learning to fish, installing a computer program or folding a shirt, says BYU professor Darron Billeter, who recently published a confidence-based study in the Journal of Consumer Research.

"In reality," Billeter says, "a number of these (activities) are really good for us if we would just stick through that initial tough part of our learning curve."

But it's easier said than done.

In fact, the researchers — including Ajay Kalra, marketing professor at Rice University, and George Loewenstein, Herbert A. Simon Professor of Economics and Psychology at Carnegie Mellon University — found that the majority of the participants were overconfident in their ability to use a skill-based product before using it but grossly underconfident after one attempt.

The participants typed on an unusual keyboard, traced a design by looking in a mirror and tried to fold a shirt in three seconds.

With the shirt experiment, participants watched an instructional video then estimated their folding time. Even after researchers told them most people were slower than they guessed, the groups' revised estimates were still overconfident.

After one try, the participants again guessed their times. At this point, their confidence had plummeted, their predictions were overly slow and their proficiency outlook pessimistic. Only after 20 minutes did their estimated and actual folding times begin to match.

What happens in the brain, explained Loewenstein, is that first-time tasks are solved using controlled processes, which are slow and flexible. Over time, the task becomes automated and is delegated to the back of the brain.

"The reason people underpredict their own rate of learning is they don't appreciate how quickly these controlled processes are going to become automated," he said. "My advice to individuals is to stick with it. You're going to get better at the task ... faster than you expect, almost always."

So while consumers may need an extra dose of patience, marketers may need to adjust their approaches.