Utah's economic outlook remains unsettled

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah's economy the past month has been a lot like the weather — unsettled.

A couple silver linings are showing through a generally stormy May, which saw the highest number ever of Utahns unemployed for six months or more, according to the monthly Zions Bank Consumer Price Index summary released Thursday.

Overall, prices for goods and services increased slightly along with real wages, but wait-and-see remains the rule of thumb from business owners to individual households along the Wasatch Front, according to the summary.

Normally, those price and wage bumps are two sure signs that the slumping economy is finding its legs again, analysts who prepare the monthly report said. However, because of national and global economic concerns, along with unemployment numbers and a job growth/loss pattern that is basically a wash as far as the local economy, the gains will most likely be held in check, at least for now, they said.

Growth in real wages, no matter how slight, and a bump in prices would be solid indicators of an economy coming out of a recessionary trough, said Sam Wright, a senior analyst with the Cicero Group/Dan Jones and Associates, which tracks local consumer prices for Zions.

"We worry about decreases in prices because they are what economists call 'sticky,' meaning lag behind other trends," Wright said Thursday. "But the growth in real wages, which is 0.3 percent higher than the national figures released today by the federal government, is a positive sign, and would be strong, were other national and global economic problems not factors."

Prices are still healthy, which people might view as a less-than-exciting indicator of how things are going, Tren Kaufman, the chief survey methodologist and vice president of Cicero. "The unemployment data is really scary, so there's still a lot of breath holding about whether trends are forming to see a recovery soon."

Still, Utahns are making more money since April, even when inflation and other mitigating factors are figured in, Kaufman said. The Great Recession could have the overall effect of making business more labor efficient, which means workers already on the job are being asked to take on more rather than businesses feeling comfortable enough to take on new employees, he added. With a few exceptions, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's assessment June 8 that his "best guess is that we'll have a continued recovery, but it won't feel terrific" pretty much applies to Utah's near future as well, Kaufman said.