CBS' gambles may pay off

CBS is feeling really, really confident about next season. And the network's top programmers are either going to look like geniuses or fools, depending on how all their gambles pay off.

Honestly, my money is on CBS Entertainment president Nina Tassler and her fall schedule. According to my (rather cloudy) crystal ball, most — if not all — of her bets will pay off, and the network will be in a stronger position this fall.

But I'm actually somewhat in awe of the chutzpah required to cancel "Ghost Whisperer," a show that regularly wins its time slot, and move established hits "The Big Bang Theory," "CSI: Miami," "Survivor" and "CSI: NY" to new nights.

Here's a rundown of the risks Tassler is taking … along with forecasts/semi-educated guesses about how all this will play out:

Sunday: "Cold Case" got the ax, despite decent (but falling) ratings. But a lineup that includes "60 Minutes," a resurgent "Amazing Race," surprise mid-season hit "Undercover Boss" and a relocated "CSI: Miami" seems certain to improve on what CBS did this season.

Monday: "Rules of Engagement" is certainly not my favorite show (I hate it), but it is the most successful sitcom CBS has plugged into the 7:30 p.m. time slot in the past couple of years. The departure of "Big Bang" for Thursdays will ding the network, but the new entry — "Mike & Molly" — is from the same team that brings us "Big Bang" and "Two and a Half Men." The revived "Hawaii Five-O" looks promising, and, with a little luck, could equal "CSI: Miami's" numbers.

Overall, it wouldn't be a surprise to see CBS dip a bit on Mondays. But that could be more than offset by improvements on Sundays and Thursdays.

Wednesday: "The New Adventures of Old Christine" and "Gary Unmarried" were canceled, and CBS seems certain to do better with their replacement — a relocated "Survivor." Don't forget, that show has been winning its Thursday-night time slot for nearly a decade.

The change at 9 p.m. is considerably more iffy. Sending "CSI: NY" to Fridays and replacing it with a comedic lawyer show that stars Jim Belushi and Jerry O'Connell is, well, certainly a gamble.

Improved ratings at 7 p.m. may offset any declines at 9 p.m., however.

Thursday: At first glance, this is the Big Gamble. Moving "The Big Bang Theory" to Thursdays at 7 p.m. is definitely risky. But it's a calculated risk.

Its only comedy competition is "Community," a show that's certainly vulnerable. (NBC renewed it, but the ratings have never been strong.)