SUU economics professor uses stats to debunk conventional sports wisdom

David Berri is the ultimate armchair quarterback. An economist by vocation, a sports fan by avocation, he has wedded his two passions in the writing of two books. The result is an entertaining romp through sports that sometimes turns conventional thinking on its ear.

If Berri is to be believed, field goals are overrated, basketball coaches are superfluous, the NBA is clueless when it comes to determining the value of players, punting is overused, and winning an NBA title is just about impossible (sorry, Jazz fans).

Berri, a sports economist and professor of applied economics at Southern Utah University, has earned a national reputation for some of the conclusions he has advanced in his books, "Wages of Wins" and the recently released "Stumbling on Wins."

Like most economists, he's a numbers geek, and there's no place like sports to crunch numbers. It's ironic: Coaches and general managers have a vast collection of data at their fingertips — batting averages, shooting percentages, third-down conversions, red-zone success — but don't know how to properly interpret them; economists are adept at interpreting data, but don't have the numbers readily available to them in most industries. That's why many of them gravitate to sports. When the Western Economics Association has its annual meeting in Portland this summer — the second biggest meeting of economists in the world — 64 papers will be devoted to sports.

"Some economists don't even like sports; they like the data," says Berri, who likes both.

If Berri's conclusions are correct, he could teach coaches and GMs a few things. Here are a few of his assertions:

"What we found is that people in sports are not making optimal decisions for their teams," says Berri. One of those decisions is kicking a field goal on fourth down near the opposing goal line, which is the conventional wisdom.

"You get three points for a field goal and then you kick off and the other team gets the ball on about the 30-yard line," says Berri. "The expected points from the 30 are about 2 1/2 points. You gain only half a point. And it can be shown that there's a benefit to sticking the other team on its own goal line if you try for the first down and don't make it."