How will tea party phenomenon affect Utah politics?

The tea party movement seems to be rolling along, which raises some interesting questions:

Will the tea party phenomenon have any impact on legislative races this year? What about legislative leadership contests?

Pignanelli: "I want smaller government and my Social Security." — Jodi Wright, California tea party activist.

Surveys document Americans' hostility toward a federal government they view as bloated and incompetent. The national tea party movement is riding the waves of this anger and taking credit for defeating incumbents, but offers no solutions. Indeed, the websites of major tea party organizations are loaded with platitudes but devoid of specific suggestions. They ignore existing proposals to reduce deficits and promote government efficiency (i.e. common-sense plans from Jim Matheson's Blue Dog Democrats or Republican Congressman Paul Ryan). As with the incumbents they denigrate, tea partiers do not provide the harsh medicine the country needs.

This lack of substance will cripple the tea party in the long run. But in the 2010 elections, anti-incumbent rhetoric is the high-calorie/low-vitamin candy for a grumpy electorate. Because of Utah's delegates/convention system, tea party activists will continue to have an impact in Republican contests. Moreover, they could influence the general elections in tight swing districts where Democratic turnout may be lower. In November 2010, the House Republican caucus could tap for leadership a legislator beloved in national tea party circles (i.e., Rep. Carl Wimmer).

Webb: "Tea party" is hard to define because it means different things to different people. It is rooted in the bad economy, more than anything else. The amorphous tea party movement today is getting credit for anything that takes politics in a more conservative direction.

A handful of Republican legislative primary races this year feature very conservative candidates (who may or may not consider themselves to be "tea party" candidates), challenging more mainstream candidates. These races will be a test of the clout of the tea party movement among primary election voters, rather than conservative convention delegates. Some of these will be hot races, very interesting to watch.

Legislative leadership races certainly could be impacted by tea party sentiments if additional arch-conservatives are elected in November and if they defeat some moderates. The right-wing element of the Legislature will be feeling its oats, and will push candidates for leadership positions.