Tea party win should serve as warning for GOP not to get too cocky

WASHINGTON — "I have a message, a message from the tea party, a message that is loud and clear and does not mince words," Rand Paul thundered at his victory party Tuesday night. "We've come to take our government back."

Democrats had reason to smile. Republicans might have shuddered.

Paul, an ophthalmologist and political novice, crushed establishment candidate Trey Grayson in winning the GOP nomination for Kentucky's contested U.S. Senate seat. Paul's victory was one of two significant results from Tuesday's overhyped contests. Both cast serious doubt on the conventional wisdom in Washington, which holds that the Republicans are ascendant and the Democrats are toast.

The other race that meant something was in the western Pennsylvania district long represented by the late Jack Murtha, who was a pro-gun, anti-abortion Democrat. Republican strategists used the campaign as a laboratory to test the themes and techniques they intend to roll out in the fall — "nationalize" the election, run against health care reform, invoke the names Obama and Pelosi to frighten voters out of their wits.

The result? Democrat Mark Critz won handily over Republican Tim Burns — in a district that voted for John McCain in 2008. "We have a lot of work to do," acknowledged House Minority Whip Eric Cantor.

The other contests Tuesday really didn't mean that much, except to the politicians involved. Rep. Joe Sestak's decisive victory over Sen. Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary was the marquee event in terms of media coverage. But that was mainly because Specter is such a familiar and prominent presence in Washington, having occupied his Senate seat for 30 long years. There was just one problem: For all but one of those years, he was a Republican.

Voters didn't buy the switcheroo, which seemed more the product of calculation than principle — a cynical maneuver to maximize Specter's chances of holding on to his job. In a state where party identification still means something, Democrats voted for the card-carrying Democrat.

In Arkansas, Sen. Blanche Lincoln's travails are only slightly more telling. She failed to win a majority in the Democratic primary and has to face a runoff against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. It's true that Halter attacked Lincoln from the left, and it's also true that voters may have wanted to punish her for the way she stalled and equivocated on health care reform. But the final verdict on Lincoln won't be in for several weeks, so it's too early to draw conclusions.