We have heard all the adjectives and adverbs in our mother tongue describing the Republican and Democratic state conventions. They range from the statesmanlike "historic" to the inflammatory "outrageous" to the unprintable. The convention results are driving lots of questions, and we humbly answer a few:
Polls showed Mike Lee with a solid majority of delegate support going into the convention. How did Tim Bridgewater reverse this and win almost 60 percent of the delegate vote on the final ballot?
Webb: Lee peaked a couple of weeks before the convention and was slipping because some delegates grew tired of his one-note campaign focused on the Constitution. In addition, he was hit with some negative attacks. Bob Bennett picked up a little momentum as the convention drew closer, and Bridgewater also rose. On the first vote, Lee, Bridgewater and Bennett were all within three points of each other, with Cherilyn Eagar 10 points back. But Bridgewater had positioned himself nicely to win second-place votes, so in the second and third voting rounds, he surged ahead with most of the Eagar and Bennett supporters. In fact, some people who crunched the numbers said Bridgewater would have won more than 60 percent and become the nominee had more Bennett supporters stuck around for the third vote.
Also, Lee's convention speeches, especially his second one, were not great performances. His second speech was entirely defensive, complaining about negative attacks.
Pignanelli: "One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is being governed by your inferiors." — Plato
Republican politicos express admiration for Bridgewater's consistent request of Bennett's and the other candidates' delegates to support him in subsequent ballots. GOP insiders with access to internal polling data believe that Bridgewater's support was always deep.
What can Utahns expect in the Bridgewater/Lee primary contest?
Webb: Bridgewater mostly escaped negative attacks pre-convention, while Bennett was pounded and Lee took some hits. But Bridgewater won't be so fortunate in the primary. Old business deals, federal funding issues, and his support of John McCain for president will be dredged up and used against him.
Pignanelli: Lee and Bridgewater need to draw distinctions between each other fast. Politicos expect the candidates, especially through surrogates, to attack each other. In the meantime, the primary contenders will quickly adjust their personas in order to attract rational Republicans (aka non-tea party conservatives) to the primary.
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