Attitudes of ordinary Iraqis will determine future

WASHINGTON — Iraqis say "Allah kareem" (God is generous) as a way of expressing trust in the hands of fate to take care of them in an uncertain future. As the results (and potential consequences) of Iraq's second national elections since the fall of Saddam Hussein slowly sink in, there is reason for Iraqis to feel uncertain.

Will this new "democratic" political process actually work? Or will the familiar chaos of violence in the election's aftermath swallow Iraqis' hopes for a livable life?

The elections cannot answer these questions. Long-term peace and stability depend on a wide range of unpredictable factors, from the development of Iraq's economy to the actions of external forces. But more than any other influence, Iraq's future depends on the beliefs and attitudes of ordinary Iraqis.

Beyond just the maneuvering of political elites, these elections have significant meaning in Iraqi society. They are a small but important part of a much longer process of establishing a civil political system in Iraq that is based on the rule of law rather than the threat of violence.

But such a system only works when individual families sitting together around the dinner table accept that system as fair and trustworthy. It also requires a mental shift from an attitude fueled by the fear of exclusion to a more inclusive, whole-of-community consciousness in which people recognize that their well-being is interconnected with the well-being of others.

Iraqis now have to decide whether or not to trust the system and each other. Will political groups who feel disempowered after this round of elections choose to use the civil process to access power, or will they see organized violence as the only way to secure their interests? Is the system even capable and ready for such a critical function?

Given their history, it makes sense why Iraqis would hesitate to see the national political process as a legitimate broker of their aspirations. Iraq itself was created by Europeans who lumped competing ethnic communities into a new state at the end of World War I. Since then Iraqis have witnessed rampant abuses of state power by corrupt sectarian leaders who pursue the prosperity of their own group at the expense of everyone else. Why should it be any different now?