Tortoise rally: Stocks have slow but big 1Q gain

NEW YORK — The stock market is taking some ages-old advice to heart: everything in moderation.

Stocks on Wednesday ended a first quarter that many investors and analysts would describe as healthy. The Standard & Poor's 500 index is up 4.9 percent by amassing a string of steady gains that were far from the supersized jumps seen in 2009. The Dow Jones industrials are up 4.1 percent, but with unremarkable gains of 50 points here and 15 there. They've had few of the triple-digit swings that used to be commonplace.

The market's relative tranquility has made many analysts upbeat about the chances that its gains will hold. They say investors now have realistic, not overoptimistic, expectations. And the market has gotten used to the idea of a bumpy economic recovery, including the continuing struggles of the housing market. But analysts warn, for stocks to extend their January-March gains, investors will need to see employers hiring again.

Even then, the market is expected to take its time.

"Like any sprinter, at some point you've got to put your hands on your knees and take a deep breath," said John Lynch, chief market analyst at Evergreen Investments in Charlotte, N.C. "That's why we've seen these mild advances in recent weeks — consistent but mild."

A by-the-numbers look at the advance that some traders have called the "tortoise rally":

 The Dow fell 51 points, or 0.5 percent, to 10,856.63 Wednesday but still posted its best first quarter since 1999. It has risen four straight quarters. It is approaching 11,000 for the first time in a year and a half. It's up 9.6 percent after falling to 9,908.39 on Feb. 8.

The quarter has padded the Dow's huge 2009 gain, putting the average 65.8 percent above the 12-year low of 6,547.05 it reached on March 9 of last year. However, it's still down 23.4 percent from its October 2007 peak of 14,164.53.

 The broader S&P 500 index fell 3.84, or 0.3 percent, to 1,169.43 Wednesday but rose 4.9 percent for the first quarter and 5.4 percent including dividends. It's the index's best first quarter since 1998. For the past 12 months, it's up 46.6 percent. S&P says the index is up about 53.6 percent when dividends are included.

 The Nasdaq composite index fell 12.73, or 0.5 percent, to 2,397.96 Wednesday. It rose 5.7 percent for the quarter, largely on the strength of companies like Apple Inc., which rose 11.5 percent. Overall, the tech stocks that dominate Nasdaq had a more modest quarter.

 The top performer in the S&P 500 index during the first quarter was Zions Bancorp. It surged 70.2 percent.