Only 1 in 5 GOP delegates re-elected — bad omen for Sen. Bob Bennett?

SALT LAKE CITY — In what is likely a bad omen for Sen. Bob Bennett, only about one of every five delegates from the last state Republican convention in 2008 were re-elected this year.

That means about 80 percent of the nearly 3,500 delegates to the GOP convention on May 8 will be "new blood," according to a Deseret News analysis of delegate lists.

"Instinct tells you that a big influx into any sort of political process tends to favor insurgents," said Kelly Patterson, director of BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. "Normally that does not bode well for incumbents."

Utah Republican Party Chairman Dave Hansen said that, normally, 45 to 50 percent of delegates are re-elected to a subsequent convention — instead of the mere 20 to 25 percent re-elected this time.

(The exact number of re-elected delegates is difficult to determine. If counting matches on both lists for the same names and addresses for both conventions, about 20 percent of delegates were re-elected. If matches are counted by just names — assuming some may have moved to different addresses — then about 25 percent were re-elected.)

"I figured we were going to have a bigger turnover this time because we had such huge numbers at the caucuses (where delegates were elected two weeks ago). We had a lot more first-time attendees," Hansen said.

"I mean, you had various groups out there like the tea party and the 9/12 and other groups that have been preparing for caucuses literally for months," Hansen added.

Such groups are conservative and have been targeting Bennett by contending that he is not conservative enough.

Patterson said that even when past delegates were re-elected at caucuses this year, "they now have to be responsive to a more diverse constituency because of all the new people who attended" — and that also could bode ill for incumbents or the old establishment.

Jim Bennett, the senator's son and campaign manager, tried to put a positive spin on the numbers. "Senator Bennett recognizes that people are angry with Washington, and rightly so, given the mess back there. This has prompted increased participation in the political process, which is a good thing."

He added, "The vast majority of these new delegates are genuinely undecided, and we're encouraged by how well they respond to Senator Bennett in face-to-face meetings. That's where they discover that he's the only candidate proposing real solutions."

The 20 percent re-election rate for state delegates also may mean that a lot of money spent on the pre-caucus race was targeted at the wrong people.