Any chance a player suffers an Aaron Rodgers-Brady Quinn type of fall? Probably not. Ryan isn't going any lower than eighth. He's the only quarterback who's a sure-fire first-round pick. It wouldn't be shocking if the other quarterback prospects — Louisville's Brian Brohm, Michigan's Chad Henne and Delaware's Joe Flacco — slip to the second round.

The best hope for Brohm, Henne and Flacco going in the first round might be if a quarterback-needy team with an early pick in the second round makes a move into the lower end of the first round.

Forget about the unproven guys. There may be some big names changing uniforms: There are some Pro Bowl-type players who could be on the move this weekend for various reasons. The Bengals say they won't trade receiver Chad Johnson, but we'll see if they can pass up tempting trade offers.

Giants tight end Jeremy Shockey is likely to be dealt to New Orleans. And two other big names, Arizona's Anquan Boldin and Miami's Jason Taylor, could find new homes.

Deseret News first-round mock draft

Pick Team ... Player ... Pos. ... School

1. Miami Dolphins ... Jake Long ... OT ... Michigan
We know we got this pick right.

2. St. Louis Rams ... Glenn Dorsey ... DT ... LSU
They finally make a good defensive draft call.

3. Atlanta Falcons ... Matt Ryan ... QB ... Boston College

They get a new face for their franchise.

4. Oakland Raiders ... Vernon Gholston ... DE ... Ohio State
Others are tempting, but Gholston is a need pick.

5. Kansas City Chiefs ... Chris Long ... DE ... Virginia
They quickly find a replacement for Jared Allen.

6. New York Jets ... Darren McFadden ... RB ... Arkansas
Their opponents finally have to account for someone.

7. New England Patriots ... Keith Rivers ... LB ... USC
Their fossil-like defense needs some youth.

8. Baltimore Ravens ... Ryan Clady ... OT ... Boise State
They'd rather have a QB, but do need OL help.

9. Cincinnati Bengals ... Sedrick Ellis ... DT ... USC
Their defense is terrible against the run and pass.

10. New Orleans Saints ... Leodis McElvin ... CB ... Troy State
If the Saints don't move up, they'll add a corner.

11. Buffalo Bills ... Devin Thomas ... WR ... Michigan State
They need a wideout to complement Lee Evans.

12. Denver Broncos ... Chris Williams ... OT ... Vanderbilt
He'll be back to protecting former teammate Jay Cutler.

13. Carolina Panthers ... Derrick Harvey ... DE ... Florida
Someone needs to replace the retired Mike Rucker.

14. Chicago Bears ... Jeff Otah ... OL ... Pittsburgh
His bruising style will come in handy in the cold.