Obama leading in 2 of next 3 states

Barack Obama is leading Hillary Clinton in two of the next three Democratic primaries, an advantage, if it holds, that would allow him to sew up the nomination.

A new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll of likely Democratic voters gives Clinton a 46 percent to 41 percent edge in Pennsylvania, and a similar 40 percent to 35 percent lead for Obama in Indiana. In North Carolina, Obama has a larger, 13-point advantage.

"To have a solid chance of winning the nomination she'd probably have to win all three" and get "a double-digit victory in Pennsylvania," says Tad Devine, a former strategist for Democrat John Kerry's 2004 presidential bid. "If she wins just one of the three, it may be difficult if not impossible for her to continue" and "if she loses Pennsylvania, it's over."

The poll offers some warnings for Democrats in the general election. More than two-fifths of voters in each of the three states say the controversy surrounding Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, will be a problem if the Illinois senator is the Democratic presidential nominee in the fall. In addition, at least one-fifth of voters in Indiana and North Carolina say they would vote for Republican candidate John McCain in the November election if their chosen Democratic candidate isn't the party nominee.

The poll of 687 Democratic primary voters in Indiana, 623 in Pennsylvania and 691 in North Carolina was conducted April 10-13, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The Pennsylvania primary is April 22; the contests in North Carolina and Indiana take place May 6.

Delegate Count

New York Senator Clinton's chances for the nomination rest on two factors: moving within striking distance of Obama on delegates — currently he has a 150-delegate lead, according to The Associated Press — and winning as many overall popular votes.

So far, Obama has gotten 800,000 more votes in Democratic primaries. If the two contenders trade narrow victories in Pennsylvania and Indiana while Obama wins decisively in North Carolina, that almost certainly would add to his delegate and popular-vote majorities and, with only seven primaries left, make it almost impossible for Clinton to catch up.

'Trouble for Both'

"Clinton is counting on these states to validate her staying in the race; she needs an overwhelming lead in Pennsylvania that she's not getting," says Los Angeles Times polling director Susan Pinkus. "But there's trouble for both of them," given the poll's finding that the Wright controversy could hurt Obama in November.