Economy nearly sputtered out at end of 2007, probably faring worse now

WASHINGTON — The economy nearly sputtered out at the end of the year and is probably faring even worse now amid continuing housing, credit and financial crises.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that gross domestic product increased at a feeble 0.6 percent annual rate in the October-to-December quarter. The reading — unchanged from a previous estimate a month ago — provided stark evidence of just how much the economy has weakened. In the prior quarter, the economy clocked in at a sizzling 4.9 percent growth rate.

The gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States and is the best barometer of the country's economic health.

Many economists say they believe growth in the current January-to-March quarter will be even weaker than the 0.6 percent figure of the previous quarter. A growing number also say the economy may actually be shrinking now. Under one rough rule, the economy needs to contract for six straight months to be considered in a recession. The government will release its estimate for first-quarter GDP in late April.

"The economy just kept its head above water" in the fourth quarter, said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight. "We think that GDP will decline, albeit slightly, during the first half of 2008," he said. "The first half outlook is bleak."

On Wall Street, stock were down in morning trading.

In another report, fewer people signed up for unemployment benefits last week, although that didn't change the broader picture of a deteriorating jobs market. The Labor Department said jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 366,000, a better showing than many economists were forecasting. Still, unemployment is expected to rise this year given all the problems clobbering the economy.

The newly released fourth-quarter GDP figure matched analysts' expectations.

Thursday's report underscored the damage to the economy from the collapse in the housing market, which has dragged down housing prices, pushed home foreclosures up to record highs and has led to a glut of unsold homes.

Against that backdrop, builders slashed spending on housing projects by a whopping 25.2 percent on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter, the biggest cut in 26 years.