Oil prices drop on concerns the slowing economy is cutting demand

Published: Thursday, March 20 2008 1:44 p.m. MDT

NEW YORK — Oil futures extended their declines Thursday as concerns about the economy and demand for oil grew and the dollar strengthened.

Retail gas prices, meanwhile, fell further below their recent records, while diesel rose to a new record above $4 a gallon.

For a second day, the oil market appeared focused on the economy and oil's underlying supply and demand fundamentals — factors it ignored in recent weeks while rocketing to a series of new records. However, some analysts said oil's price swoon may not last for long; most investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates several more times this year, moves that are sure to put new pressure on the dollar.

Lower interest rates tend to weaken the dollar, driving investors to commodities such as oil that they view as a hedge against inflation. A lower dollar also makes oil less expensive to overseas investors — a trend that reverses when the dollar strengthens, as it did Thursday.

But there are signs the market may be divorcing itself from its focus on the dollar. Prices were pressured Thursday when the Labor Department said the number of people filing for unemployment benefits jumped by 22,000 last week, much more than expected. A sharp slowdown in the economy could reduce demand for oil and gasoline. On Wednesday, the Energy Department said gasoline demand dropped by 1 percent last week.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery fell 70 cents to settle at $101.84 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Thursday after sliding to as low as $98.65 earlier. It was the first dip by a front-month oil contract under $100 since March 5. On Wednesday, the expiring April contract fell $4.94 a barrel to settle at $104.48.

Most financial markets in the U.S. and many other countries will be closed for Good Friday.

Oil has fallen sharply this week, dropping about 9 percent, since setting a new trading record of $111.80 on Monday.

"(Investors) seem to be coming round to the notion that the deterioration in the U.S. (economic) picture cannot be ignored on the pretext that commodities are a 'weak dollar play' or an 'inflation hedge', and thus immune from downward pressure," said Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global UK Ltd., in a research note.

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