Mahdi Army considers extending cease-fire

BAGHDAD (MCT) — In the coming days, the hard-line Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has a crucial decision to make: whether to renew the six-month freeze on activities of his Mahdi Army militia that has been credited with helping bring down the levels of violence in Iraq.

A refusal to extend the cease-fire could have a profound impact on the successes scored so far by President Bush's military surge strategy, raising the specter of a return to the sectarian Sunni-Shiite killings that pushed Iraq to the brink of civil war as well as a possible increase in the number of attacks against U.S. forces.

As the deadline for the expiration of the declared cease-fire approaches, U.S. officials say they have noted an increase in the number of attacks by Shiite extremist groups believed to be backed by Iran, suggesting support for the cease-fire is starting to wane among Sadrist supporters.

U.S. officials have repeatedly said they expect the cease-fire to be renewed, but aides to al-Sadr in the holy Shiite city of Najaf hinted Wednesday that an extension is far from certain.

The aides said that they have given al-Sadr a series of reports on the cease-fire's impact on the al-Sadr movement in various Iraqi provinces and that he would decide by Saturday whether or not to renew it.

If al-Sadr does not announce an extension by Saturday, "it means the freeze has finished," said his spokesman, Sheikh Salah al-Obeidi.

Addressing reporters in Baghdad, U.S. military spokesman Rear Adm. Gregory Smith praised the role of the Mahdi Army's suspension of hostilities in bringing down the violence.

"We hope and expect it will continue," he said of the cease-fire. "Their steps have been very positive in reducing violence, and we expect that to be the same in the future."

U.S. commanders say they noticed a sharp fall in the number of attacks against U.S. forces by Shiite militias immediately after the cease-fire declaration in August, as well as a steep reduction in the number of sectarian killings of Sunnis in and around Baghdad.

That helped encourage Sunnis to turn against the extremist al-Qaida in Iraq organization, which had been fueling Sunni violence against Shiites, leading to a 75 percent reduction in the number of Iraqi civilian casualties between February 2007 and January this year, according to Smith. The number of U.S. casualties fell from a peak last year of 126 in May.