U.S. may hit 438 million in 2050

WASHINGTON — Nationally and in Utah, populations are expected to swell in the next four decades, especially among Latinos and Asians.

The U.S. population is projected to reach 438 million by 2050, and that growth — 82 percent — will be driven by new immigrants and their U.S.-born descendants, a study released Monday projects.

During the next half century in the U.S., the Latino and Asian populations will triple, and the non-Hispanic white population will grow by 4 percent, said the study by the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan group in Washington.

In Utah, those numbers for growth in the white population are expected to be higher than the national average, however, as the birth rate for whites is above the U.S. average.

Non-Hispanic whites will comprise 47 percent of the U.S. population, African-Americans will account for 13 percent, and Asian Americans 9 percent.

Hispanics, already the nation's largest minority group, will comprise 29 percent of the total population by 2050, compared to 14 percent currently, it said.

That growth will be fueled not only by new immigrants moving in, but also by their higher birth rates. Nationally, whites have a birth rate of 2 per woman, compared to 2.5 for Hispanics.

However, in Utah, the birth rates for both groups are higher, so even with an immigrant influx, whites will probably remain the majority, says Pamela Perlich, senior research economist at the University of Utah.

"Our white fertility rate is above replacement," Perlich said. "The Hispanic rate is a full point higher."

Utah's birth rate is 2.5 per woman for whites, and 3.5 for Hispanics, she said. Perlich pointed out that immigrants' children and grandchildren tend to have lower birth rates than their parents. That trend caused California to lower its population projections, she said.

The total population projection is higher than a previous calculation by the U.S. Census Bureau, which projected 420 million people by 2050.

Jeffrey S. Passel, a senior research associate at the Pew Hispanic Center who co-authored the report, said that it assumes larger immigration projections than the government calculation.