So how will Rocky Mountain Power meet this 3,500 MW shortfall? It plans to produce more electricity using natural gas and also purchase power from other sources outside its system. It plans to increase its focus on energy efficiency, but most importantly, it expects two-thirds of the new requirements to be met by the use of renewable resources, particularly wind power. There is no consideration in this plan for additional coal-fired generation or nuclear generation. Notably, this plan does not reflect any additional costs for coal-fired generation reductions that may be a consequence of Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr.'s commitment to "develop state goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as part of a regional initiative to reduce (such) emissions by 15 percent by 2020." A bigger question for consumers, however, is how much will it cost us to meet this new electricity demand? The short answer is "more." Today, Rocky Mountain Power's average cost for generation is 3.5 cents per kilowatt-hour. Overall, Utah enjoys an enormous advantage when it comes to paying for electricity. California rate payers, on average, pay two and a half times what Utahns pay. But there is no scenario that does not increase the cost of electricity in Utah. Compared with the existing generation cost, a new coal-fired plant would cost 6 cents per kilowatt-hour. Wind power would cost about 7 cents, nuclear power about 7.5 cents. Natural gas generation would cost nearly 10 cents and solar power 18.5 cents. None of these costs take into account the reliability of these energy sources. For example, it takes roughly 4 installed megawatts of wind power to offset 1 megawatt of coal-fired generation.

Taken together, just to meet new demand could double current generation cost. This is on top of Rocky Mountain Power's recently requested 11 percent rate increase.

Almost everyone believes energy efficiency will play a large role in reducing demand. Hopefully this will be the case. Unfortunately, according to a recent article in The Economist, energy efficiency savings do not reflect what some economists call the "rebound effect." "Any reduction in energy use means a reduction in cost, which, in turn, leads to an increase in demand, eating into the savings from more frugal engineering." Recent estimates of the size of the rebound effect range from 10 percent to 37 percent.

It is critical to the future of Utah to make correct decisions in balancing our environmental needs and energy use, both indispensable elements of Utah's economic growth. Happily, Huntsman and the Legislature are committed to a stakeholder-based process to establish targets for greenhouse gas reductions based on economic factors.

(Next week: Do we need an Apollo moon shot-type program to solve this problem?)

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Joe Cannon is editor of the Deseret Morning News.