For much of 1929, Americans were feeling the groove. Enough so that Irving Fisher, a professor of economics at Yale, was moved to predict in September that stock prices had "reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."
A few days later the stock market crashed. Then came the Great Depression.
What that has to do with the Utah Jazz is this: Some say things are OK, everything is going to be fine. The season isn't even at the midway point. The Jazz have certainly played a tough early schedule, including the league's best San Antonio, Portland, Orlando, Dallas, Boston, Detroit, Phoenix.
There's nothing to worry about, right?
Unless you consider missing the playoffs worrisome.
In which case you might want to start looking for a building to leap off.
The Jazz wrapped up the second of a four-game home stand, Thursday night at ES Arena, with a 108-86 win over the the injury-and-illness-depleted Suns. That makes it 37 games gone, 45 to go. As of Thursday's tip-off, the Jazz were grinding along with the ninth-best record in the West, out of playoff contention. Could the Big Collapse be right around the corner?
Maybe it's here and the Jazz just don't know it yet.
Before beating Phoenix, the Jazz were 19-17, compared to 24-12 last year. Their record was identical to what it was after 36 games in 2005-2006, 2003-2004 and 2001-02. And you know what happened then: They only made the playoffs one of those three years, and ended up winning just one playoff game.
The only time the Jazz have started worse since the late 1980s was in 2004-05, when they began with a 12-24 record.
This year's Jazz have had their moments. Put them at home and they're fine. But put them in a strange environment and they're as helpless as an abandon kitten. This year's team is just 6-14 on the road. That's dangerously close to the 2004-05 season, when the Jazz were 5-15 in early January, or the year before when they were 4-16.
It's safe to say this year's team has been playing a lot like the Jazz teams that missed the playoffs.
Realistically, last year's team went farther than it should have. The Western Conference Finals were a stretch for a team so young and untested. A combination of determination, luck, and plain old ignorance got them as far as the observation deck. Top floor, well, that would have to wait.
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