MANCHESTER, N.H. (MCT) — The presidential candidates return this morning to a state in transition, pitching their appeals not just to longtime New Englanders but to the many newcomers who have arrived in recent years.

A little more than a year after voters in New Hampshire threw Republicans out of offices up and down the government, anger over the war in Iraq has abated somewhat, anxiety about the economy and health care is on the rise and gay couples can now enter into legally recognized civil unions.

The number of independent voters has reached a record 373,397 out of 830,684 registered voters, and the secretary of state predicted that 50,000 more voters would register to vote on Election Day, which is expected to be clear and relatively warm for January.

"It's going to be a historic turnout," predicted Secretary of State Bill Gardner. "With both parties, there's someone for everyone, there's a huge variety of candidates."

What's not clear is who is going to win.

Polls show Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama neck and neck in the Democratic primary, with former Sen. John Edwards a distant third. On the Republican side, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is straining to hold his lead as Sen. John McCain moves up in the polls aided by the collapse of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's campaign here.

Political analysts say they are unsure what voters new to the state, who tend not to affiliate with any party, will do this year.

"Newer voters are less likely to be informed — they tend to be younger people and they don't vote with the same regularity as older people," said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. "I am not as convinced they're going to turn out and vote as much as the old-time voters. It is a wild card."

With just four days until the primary, many voters say they still haven't decided who they are voting for, or whether they will stick with the candidate they are currently thinking about supporting.

"I really see people struggling more than I typically have," said Dean Spiliotes, a New Hampshire political analyst. "People really seem concerned this time about getting it right, worrying about electability in the fall, worrying about strategic calculations."

The campaigns are leaving nothing to chance as they frantically remind voters to go to the polls on Tuesday.

"Everybody here is paying very serious attention," said Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., who is supporting Romney. "The level of interest and attention has been very strong."