Poll finds Latinos switching allegiance back to Demos

Gains made by Republicans among Hispanic voters in the presidential elections of 2000 and 2004 have been erased over the past year, with Hispanics returning to earlier levels of strong preference for the Democratic Party, a survey released Thursday by the Pew Hispanic Center in Washington shows.

The survey pointed to "a number of potentially worrisome early signs" for the Republicans among Hispanic voters in the 2008 presidential race. Immigration has become a more important issue for Hispanics than it was in 2004, the Pew poll showed, and far more registered Latino voters say that the Democrats are doing a better job on illegal immigration than the Republicans.

The number of Hispanics eligible to vote is relatively small, at 18.2 million, but the survey suggests that Latino voters could become a strategic swing vote in several states — including Colorado, Florida, New Mexico and Nevada — that President Bush carried by narrow margins in 2004.

The Pew Hispanic Center is a nonpartisan research organization that does not take positions on political issues. The survey report was written by Paul Taylor and Richard Fry, two researchers at the center.

According to the survey, 57 percent of registered Hispanic voters say they are Democrats or favor the Democratic Party, while 23 percent say they align with the Republicans, yielding a gap of 34 percentage points between the parties. As recently as July 2006, that gap was down to 21 points, as Latino support for the Democrats dipped to 49 percent.

Democratic allegiance among Hispanic voters has returned to the levels of 1999, when the gap between the parties was 33 percentage points, the survey found.

Seeking to appeal to conservative primary voters frustrated about surging illegal immigration, several Republican presidential candidates, especially Mitt Romney and Rudolph W. Giuliani, have tried to outdo one another in taking a hard line on the issue. The Democrats have been divided on immigration, with some seeking to play down an issue they see as volatile. Some Democratic strategists have said the party could reap a windfall among Hispanic voters next year.

Forty-four percent of registered Latino voters say the Democrats have more concern for their issues, while only 8 percent say the Republican Party has more concern. But a large group — 41 percent — says there is no difference between the two parties.