Intelligence report contradicts portrayal of nuke frenzy in Iran

WASHINGTON — Iran halted its nuclear weapons program four years ago, and there is no evidence it has enriched uranium to build an atomic bomb, according to declassified portions of a secret U.S. intelligence assessment released Monday — directly contradicting the Bush administration's portrayal of Iran as a terrorist state bent on developing an atomic arsenal.

The much-anticipated National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear program, ordered by Congress in 2006, concludes that Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program "suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005." The Iranian government's decisions, according to the report, "are guided by a cost-benefit approach" rather than a rush to obtain a nuclear weapon "irrespective of the political, economic and military costs."

The report — considered the collective judgment of the nation's 16 spy agencies — estimated the earliest Iran could produce a bomb is 2010 if it resumed its weapons program, but it is more likely that the ability to make a nuclear weapon "may not be attained until after 2015."

The conclusions contrasted sharply with recent statements of President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and many of the top Republican presidential candidates. Most seem to regard Iran as a nation that wants a nuclear arsenal despite the cost — including a potential military confrontation with the United States.

The intelligence flip-flop recalled the embarrassing reversal that Bush was forced to make on whether Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction. The conviction that Saddam Hussein had such weapons was one of the factors behind Bush's decision to invade Iraq. It since has been determined that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction.

Democrats on Monday did not hesitate to suggest an Iran-Iraq comparison.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Democrats had requested the new Iran assessment "so that the administration could not rush this Congress and the country to another war based on flawed intelligence." He said the report's conclusions lead him to believe "we should be having a surge of diplomacy with Iran" rather than a military confrontation.

The White House insisted the report proves its current strategy for dealing with Iran — diplomatic overtures combined with tough talk — is working.

National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley told reporters that the estimate "offers grounds for hope that the problem can be solved diplomatically without the use of force, as the administration has been trying to do."